Ernesto tropical storm force winds, Leeward, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico, no risk to US East Coast

We continue to move along in this nice weather pattern. The northwest flow does push upper troughs through the Northeast. Yesterday we saw scattered showers pop up in a few places as the upper trough went by. While the temperatures at the surface have been on the warm-ish side, temperatures aloft a colder and that creates a bit of instability. Today should be a day of sunshine with just a few passing clouds. Highs will reach 80 to 85 in most places. I'm leaving the mention of an isolated shower out of the forecast. Most lows tonight will be in the upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s coast and warmer urban areas.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Satellite and radar loops show clouds and some showers moving across parts of Virginia and North Carolina but they are moving southeast east and are not an issue here, nor will the be an issue for the rest of the week. Wednesday will be another day of sunshine and low humidity with highs in the low to middle 80s.

Photo byNational Weather Service

We are going to be on cruise control for the rest of the work week. Thursday and Friday will be repeat performances of Wednesday with sunshine both days and highs in the low to mid 80s. The next weather front is setting up for the weekend. At the same time we have Tropical Storm Ernesto which today will bring rain and wind to the Northern Leeward Islands and possibly to Puerto Rico.

8/13/2024 SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Ernesto is likely to strengthen to a hurricane once it moves north of Puerto Rico over the weekend. Hurricane track model guidance is very tightly clustered which lends a high degree of confidence to the forecast. Ernesto is likely to be a threat to Bermuda and possibly Atlantic Canada down the road next week but it is not going to be an issue for the US east coast.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

With Ernesto not an issue, we focus on an approaching cold front and the looks to bring some showery rains and the risk for thunderstorms on both weekend days though it doesn't rain every waking minute. Temperatures will likely be lower due to cloud cover and limited sun so we will go upper 70s and lower 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. Humidity levels will be coming up on southerly winds ahead of the cold front making for a muggy weekend overall. We will likely have shower chances lingering into Monday of next week as the front will be slow to pass offshore and we will need to wait until Ernesto gets out of the way.