ANALYSIS: The three pivotal games on Miami Hurricanes schedule

If you listen to the prognosticators, the Miami Hurricanes have a pretty darn good shot of hitting the double-digit win mark in 2024 for just the second time in the last two decades. That’s in part due to a reshaped roster with an assist from the transfer portal, but it’s also because of a schedule that doesn’t include some of the better ACC talent (Clemson, NC State) along with no major out-of-conference foes that had winning records a year ago.

With that in mind, today we’re looking at the three pivotal games on Miami’s schedule.

3. FLORIDA IS A MUST-WIN SEASON OPENER

The Gators enter this one off a 5-7 record and have three straight losing seasons. With an over/under of just 4.5 wins this year, it’s worth noting that UF plays a brutal SEC and non-conference schedule. Still, the perception is Miami has the better team, and the Canes are an early three-point favorite on the road per DraftKings . With Miami struggling to find traction in Mario Cristobal ’s first two years, losing in this game would be viewed as a major setback and it’s hard to say how UM would be able to bounce back from that with the expectations set so high entering the season. The Canes would have to wait almost a full rough month for another “real” test, and that would be home vs. Virginia Tech Sept. 27 after playing FAMU, Ball State and USF. Miami wants to be for real, and that means taking a winnable opener on the road. The Gators have an explosive offense and vulnerable defense, so a high-scoring game could be on the horizon.

2. AT LOUISVILLE

While of course Florida State is the game everyone has circled, this one at Louisville a week before the matchup with the Noles is going to be absolutely pivotal. Because not only are the Cardinals a really talented team on both sides of the ball with a win over/under set at 8.5, but you can’t lose this one and give up momentum heading into that FSU matchup. This is a game where the odds-makers have UM as a slight early underdog , and if the Canes play well in the early season there’s a chance this will have the tightest betting line for Miami all year (with FSU a home game). Louisville loses eight starters on offense but padded the roster with portal talent, and the defensive unit has key pieces returning from a group that was No. 1 in red zone defense in 2023. This is a must-win game for Miami heading into a monumental matchup with the Seminoles.

1. VS. FLORIDA STATE

FSU enjoyed an undefeated regular season in 2023, and this is always the rivalry game the Canes have circled. The outcome of this one could easily determine if Miami is in the ACC title game/playoff picture depending how other games shake out. The expectation by most is that it’s Clemson and FSU as the conference’s top two teams, with Miami not far off from them. FSU is doing what it did to reach success a year ago: Grabbing some top portal talent to supplement the returning players. So how those transfers – including QB DJ Uiagalelei – pan out will be a major key to Florida State’s fortunes. Beat both FSU and Louisville? You have to think Miami will be in great shape for a playoff run. The team almost certainly has to win one of the two for a shot at the ACC title as well, assuming no hiccups against the likes of Cal, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and others that Miami should out-talent.

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