ANALYSIS: What the odds say as it pertains to the Miami Hurricanes game by game results in the coming season

Depending on what preseason poll you check, the Miami Hurricanes could be ranked anywhere from No. 10 in the nation to unranked. The rankings are subjective, of course, essentially way-too-early guesswork. And today we’re not going to run a lot of them down, something we did in late May and again through our Lindy’s and Athlon analysis stories earlier this month. No, today we are taking a look at what Miami SHOULD accomplish this season based on the odds. In other words, we’re saying let’s put your money where your mouth is. We’ll take a look at the college betting lines that are out and use those to project Miami ‘s wins and losses this year, game by game.

So let’s get right to it.

At Florida : UF has a 4.5 wins over/under per FanDuel (but with one of the nation’s hardest schedules). Miami is favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game depending on where you look, so that’s a straight up head-to-head odds we can use for this projection. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: NARROW VICTORY

vs. FAMU : FCS opponent will be overmatched at every position and Miami will be a very heavy favorite. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: EASY WIN

vs. Ball State : Ball State has a 4.5 wins over/under per FanDuel. This is not a good team that is expected to struggle in a conference nowhere near the ACC’s level. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: EASY WIN

at USF : The Bulls are set at a 7.5 wins over/under per FanDuel. But that’s against a schedule that includes Bethune-Cookman, Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB, FAU, Navy, Charlote, Tulsa and Rice. So those nine games are where USF can get to its 7-8 projected wins. Miami should not have too many issues in this one against a team that is talent-wise overmatched pretty much all over the field. The Canes should be a solid favorite. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: WIN FAIRLY EASILY

vs. Virginia Tech : Hokies have an 8.5 wins over/under per FanDuel. While the Hokies have some talent and could win 8 or 9 games, the early line in this one per DraftKings has the Canes favored by 7.5 points at home. We think it might be closer than a touchdown difference, but the projection still goes UM’s way. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: NARROW VICTORY

at Cal : Cal’s got a 6.5 wins over/under set by FanDuel. The team has no games listed with early head-to-head betting lines, so we’ll rely on the national championship odds from FanDuel – Miami is at +5000, and Cal’s at +100,000. So safe to say Miami will be favored in this one, even 3,000 miles from home. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: VICTORY

at Louisville : The Cardinals are set with an 8.5 wins over/under by FanDuel. The DraftKings early spread for this game has Louisville as a one-point favorite with the Canes going on the road. In other words, this one can really go either way. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: COULD GO EITHER WAY

vs. FSU: 9.5 wins over/under per FanDuel. The early DraftKings betting line has this as a pick ‘em. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: COULD GO EITHER WAY

vs. Duke : The Blue Devils’ over/under line is set at 5.5 per FanDuel. So far the only game line that is out per DraftKings has the Blue Devils as a 1.5-point underdog at home vs. a UNC team that’s a four-point underdog at home vs. NC State. Extrapolate out further and NC State is a 7.5-point favorite at Clemson, and the Tigers are a four-point underdog at Florida State (which has even odds at Miami). So what we’re saying is, in a convoluted way, Duke would be a major underdog facing FSU at home, and since the Seminoles have even odds with the Canes at UM, it’s easy to project that Duke is going to be a heavy underdog against Miami. We probably knew that without even doing the math, though, right? MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: EASY WIN

at Georgia Tech : Yellow Jackets are set with a 5.5 wins over/under per FanDuel. Let’s do some math. In a neutral field game in Ireland Aug. 24 vs. FSU to start the season, the Noles are a 13-point favorite per DraftKings. Extrapolate that compared to Miami having even odds in the game vs. FSU and we’d expect the Yellow Jackets to be an underdog by at least a touchdown or so on the road. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: VICTORY

vs. Wake Forest : The Demon Deacons have a 4.5 over/under for wins per FanDuel, and that’s with the team having games against the likes of North Carolina A&T, UConn (which also has a 4.5 win over/under), Duke, Louisiana and Virginia (also projected as 4.5 win over/under). So it’s pretty obvious Miami is going to be a heavy home favorite in this one. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: EASY WIN

at Syracuse : The Orange could be a surprise team and are set with a 7.5 wins over/under per FanDuel. The only early season game line here per DraftKings is against Ohio (MAC team has an over/under of 7.5 wins), with Syracuse favored at home by 14.5 points. Ohio doesn’t have any other early betting lines, so it’s hard to make a true head-to-head projection of the Canes vs. Syracuse based on the odds-makers. So the main thing we can rely on here is the FanDuel national championship odds – Miami at +5000 and Syracuse at +60,000. We’re going to go ahead and safety project that if a game betting line was made today for this one that the Canes would be favored. MIAMI ODDS ANALYSIS PROJECTION: VICTORY

The bottom line? You can see why Miami has a 9.5 wins over/under from FanDuel, and based on the above you can perhaps can even argue it should be set right at 10 – the Canes should be favored to win every game except one or two (Louisville and FSU). If only game-by-game odds were the game results, right? Because then Miami would be looking at a season with the low bar at 10-2 and the high one set at 12-0.

As you look at the FanDuel national championship odds big picture, only one opponent is ranked higher than Miami’s +5000. That’s FSU at +2800. The next highest opponent is Louisville at +12,000 followed by Virginia Tech at +30,000.

The schedule stacks up in UM’s favor, now the team just has to play to its potential and not lose the seemingly every-year games it should have, on paper, won.

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