Jaylen Waddle struggled with injuries last season. He only missed 3 full games, but he played eight games with under a 70% snap share. In Waddle’s first two seasons in the league, he played under a 70% snap share in just 5 of 33 games. The injuries had an impact, but Waddle looks to return to form in one of the NFL’s best offenses this year.
Miami scored the 3rd most points per game last season (27.9), had the 3rd most yards per game (393.7), and targeted their Wide Receivers at the 3rd highest rate (67.8%) in the NFL. Mike McDaniel is one of the more creative playcallers in the league right now and knows how to scheme his players into open space. The Dolphins used pre-snap motion on 65.4% of their plays.
That is by far the most in the NFL, with the next closest team using pre-snap motion in 43.4% of their plays. Pre-snap motion can help teams find mismatches for their receivers and help the quarterback if the defense is in the zone or there is man coverage. Tua Tagovailoa has also helped this offense, and his Wide Receivers put up huge numbers with his downfield accuracy.
Tagovailoa has finished 3rd or better in completions, 4th or better in yards, and 6th or better in touchdowns on 20+ yard pass attempts over the last two seasons. Waddle received just three fewer targets of 20+ yards in 2023 than in 2022 but was much less efficient on those targets last year. Waddle only caught 5 of 13 targets at this distance for 196 yards and 1 touchdown where in 2022, Waddle caught 10 of 16 targets for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Rekindling that downfield connection will be essential to Waddle hitting his ceiling this season. The Dolphins also brought in some new names to compete for targets. They signed veteran Wide Receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and Tight End Jonnu Smith this off-season. They also drafted speedy, pass-catching Running Back Jaylen Wright and Wide Receiver Malik Washington in the 4th and 6th rounds of the NFL Draft.
Although none of the four players mentioned have the same skill set or commitment from the team as Waddle, they will all be in the mix to get targets this year. Over the past two seasons, though, McDaniel and Tua have rarely opted to give the third receiver on the team a high percentage of the team’s targets.
In both seasons, Waddle and Hill received at least 104 targets each, with the next closest receiver getting 52 targets at most. If this offense remains centered around their two star Wide Receivers and an efficient run game, look for Waddle to be a solid value in redraft leagues.
Our consensus projections for Waddle in the 2024 season would be: 84 receptions, 1175 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 1 carry for 6 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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