As the Democratic National Convention kicks off this week in Chicago, where does the election stand in swing states?
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are largely neck and neck in key battleground states, according to new polls and an updated election model.
And in cases where one candidate has an advantage, they are often within the margin of error.
Here’s a breakdown of two recent polls and one updated statistical model.
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Focaldata poll
Harris led Trump in five of seven swing states, according to a Focaldata poll conducted between Aug. 6-16. The poll, which sampled a minimum of 651 likely voters, has a margin of error of 3.7 to 3.8 percentage points, according to Semafor .
Her largest advantage was in Michigan, where she was ahead by seven points, receiving 51% compared to Trump’s 44%.
In Wisconsin and Nevada, Harris edged Trump by six points, with 50% versus 44% and 48% versus 42%, respectively, according to Semafor.
In Michigan, she was ahead with 51% compared to Trump’s 44%, while in Wisconsin, she was up 50% to Trump’s 44%.
Meanwhile, she was ahead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina by one point — 48% to 47% and 47% to 46%, respectively. Both of these leads fall within the margin of error.
Trump led the vice president in Georgia, with 49% compared to her 45%. He was also ahead by one point in Arizona — 46% versus 45% — which is within the margin of error.
New York Times/Siena College poll
In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll , Harris and Trump both had slight leads in two Sun Belt swing states.
The poll , conducted between Aug. 8-15, sampled 2,670 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
The only result outside of the margin of error was in Arizona, where Harris outpaced Trump by five points with likely voters — garnering 50% compared to his 45%.
She led Trump by two points among likely voters in North Carolina with 49% versus his 47%, per the poll.
Meanwhile, Trump led Harris by four points — just within the margin of error — in Georgia, garnering 50% compared to her 46%.
He also had a one-point advantage in Nevada, where he was up 48% to 47%.
CBS News’ statistical model
In CBS News’ statistical model , which was updated on Aug. 16, seven swing states were rated as toss-ups.
The model, which is configured using survey data, has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Harris and Trump were tied in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where they each gained 50% and 49%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the vice president had a two-point lead in Nevada — 50% to 48% — and a one-point lead in Michigan, 49% versus 48%.
In Georgia and North Carolina, Trump garnered a two-point lead, with 50% versus Harris’ 48% in both states. He led by one point in Arizona, with 50% versus 49%.
Takeaway
The latest polls and updated model come amid a boost in support for Harris, who entered the race on July 21, after President Joe Biden withdrew.
When Biden was still in the race, polls showed battleground states slipping out of his reach , according to previous reporting from McClatchy News. But now, Harris appears to have made up ground and is within striking distance of Trump.
It’s also likely that her polling numbers will continue to rise during the DNC this week, which will be “focused on painting the ticket in the most favorable light possible,” David Barker, a professor of government at American University, previously told McClatchy News.
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