Miami-Dade’s Democratic mayor won big this week. Is a run for Florida governor next?

After a decisive reelection win as Miami-Dade County mayor, Daniella Levine Cava may soon be looking at a much harder race: Florida governor.

On Tuesday night, the first-term Democrat won another four years by a wide margin, turning back a slate of mostly Republican challengers in the officially nonpartisan race. Precinct data shows Levine Cava dominated Democratic strongholds and was competitive in parts of Miami-Dade that reliably vote Republican.

After months of quiet chatter about a potential Levine Cava statewide campaign, her camp is now pointing to her bipartisan support in Miami-Dade as a potential launch pad for a 2026 governor run in a state that hasn’t gone Democratic since the 1990s.

“When she travels all over the state, she is regarded as the top Democrat everybody is looking at. And last night’s results confirmed that,” Christian Ulvert, Levine Cava’s longtime political consultant, said at a news conference Wednesday morning after the mayor took questions in English and Spanish. “Democrats are talking about, ‘What’s our future?’ And the future rests not only with mayors, but women mayors.”

Ulvert’s comments on a hypothetical statewide run for Levine Cava capture what political insiders have been chatting about for at least a year.

Detractors call it targeted buzz aimed at keeping Levine Cava’s formidable fundraising operation going after an easy reelection even if she ultimately decided to skip a statewide run. Others see Ulvert pressing for another well-funded campaign he could run, despite the longshot odds.

David Custin, a Republican campaign consultant, replied with hysterical laughing emojis when asked by text what he thought of a potential Levine Cava run for governor. He noted that six years ago Ulvert managed the failed campaign for governor of Phil Levine, the Democratic former mayor of Miami Beach.

“Levine Cava for governor in 2026 is less credible than Miami Beach Mayor Levine’s run in 2018,” he wrote. “However, it will again make Ulvert lots of money in a campaign that will end in miserable defeat.”

Some admirers question why she would surrender half of her second term to pursue an uphill race in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters. Others see her as the kind of centrist Democrat who could have appeal across party lines and compete for independents in 2026, when a term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis will leave office.

“The mayor checks a lot of boxes,” said State. Sen. Shevrin Jones, head of Miami-Dade’s Democratic Party, who is also mentioned as a potential candidate for governor in 2026. “ The mayor, honestly, has shown herself to truly be the people’s mayor.”

So far, Levine Cava has declined to tamp down the speculation with definitive answers about a 2026 race.

Asked Tuesday night if she was interested in running for governor, she replied: “I am focused on doing the job that I promised I would do. That’s my plan.”

At Wednesday’s press conference, a reporter asked if the loss of Democratic voters in Miami-Dade with a Democratic mayor in office suggested there’s little hope of reversing the same slide in Florida.

“I’m very focused on Miami-Dade,” she said. “I think my race has brought out people who maybe were not as enthusiastic before. I hope that has created momentum that will carry us forward.”

Since replacing a term-limited Republican mayor in 2020, Levine Cava raised about $5 million for her reelection campaign. During the same stretch of time, Miami-Dade lost about 110,000 Democratic voters and gained 51,000 Republicans.

While registered Democrats make up the highest proportion of county voters, followed by independents and Republicans, the trends favor the GOP. Based on the latest three-month average of changes in voter registrations, Democrats are on track to lose their No. 1 status to independents by next May, followed by Republicans taking the lead in October 2025.

That would make Miami-Dade a red county at the same time Levine Cava could be asking Florida Democrats to get behind her campaign.

Privately, Ulvert has told people he expects a much more favorable landscape for a Florida Democrat if former President Donald Trump wins the White House in November. That could spark the kind of “blue wave” backlash that put Democrat Andrew Gillum within about 30,000 votes of winning the governor’s race in 2018, when DeSantis won his first term.

Others see a win from Vice President Kamala Harris in November as the best shot for Florida Democrats to receive the kind of national money needed to rebuild voter registration ahead of a Harris reelection campaign in 2028.

Ashley Gantt, a Miami-Dade Democrat reelected to the Florida House on Tuesday, said she thought Levine Cava’s background as a child-advocacy lawyer and director of a foster-care program would be popular across Florida. She also expected Florida voters to be ready for a change two years from now, even in an increasingly red Sunshine State.

“I think Floridians have been pushed to a point of struggling,” said Gantt, who is also an Ulvert client. “They’re going to be more inclined to have an open mind. ... I definitely think she could win.”

Analyzing the Miami-Dade mayor vote

This summer, Levine Cava was the only Democrat in a race where Democratic and Republican voters both cast about 41% of the ballots.

With the parties split in a race where Levine Cava had to get more than 50% to avoid a runoff in November, she needed strong support among independents and to leach some GOP votes away from Republicans.

The second-place finisher, Manny Cid, the Republican mayor of Miami Lakes, took 23% of the vote, followed by 12% for Alexander Otaola, the Republican host of a conservative YouTube show with a focus on Cuban-Americans.

A Miami Herald analysis of precinct data showed Levine Cava dominated the Democratic vote.

In precincts where Democrats make up at least half of the voters, Levine Cava took about 85% of the vote, compared to 5% each for Cid and Otaola.

Cid won Republican precincts with about 42% of the vote, and Levine Cava taking 33%. Otaola finished third in those precincts, at just under 20%.

For precincts with a significant share of independent voters, Levine Cava was the clear favorite, taking about 65% of the vote over Cid’s 22%.

In Hialeah, a Republican stronghold in Miami-Dade, Cid finished slightly ahead of the Democratic mayor, 34% to 33%, according to the Herald’s analysis.

Cid won his town of Miami Lakes handily, taking 53% of the vote over Levine Cava’s 34%.

On Wednesday, Cid said Levine Cava’s numbers mostly reflect the overwhelming financial advantage she enjoyed in the race as an incumbent mayor.

“The folks who knew me best — we won [them] by a solid margin,” he said. Cid said the tally shows his message and record were solid, but there just wasn’t “enough money to get the message out.”

Emiliano Antunez, Cid’s campaign consultant, said Levine Cava benefited from the governor chatter throughout 2024 because it gave prominent Republicans a reason to sit out of the race.

The reason? So many prominent Republicans would like to run for Miami-Dade mayor if she vacates the job in 2026.

“This was part of her plan — to take away or to freeze Republican support for Manny Cid,” he said. “That did have a chilling effect.”

Antunez declined to offer names, but potential Republican candidates circulating among politicos include incoming Florida Speaker Danny Perez; County Commissioners Kevin Cabrera, Raquel Regalado, René Garcia and J.C. Bermudez; Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez; Coral Gables Mayor Vince Lago; Hialeah Mayor Esteban “Steve” Bovo; and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.

Ulvert said Levine Cava picked up Republican support by connecting with voters of both parties with a campaign that pitched her as strong on the economy, public safety and supporting small businesses.

“Message matters,” he said. “The mayor showed the path forward for Democrats, not only to win big in Miami-Dade County but to rebuild what Florida once was.”