Something is Wrong with Simeon Woods Richardson

The Minnesota Twins are trending towards the postseason but the starting rotation is running on fumes . Rocco Baldelli has new arms filling in , as they try to reach the October finish line, but there are still a lot of starts remaining in the 2024 regular season.

What’s going on with Minnesota Twins Simeon Woods Richardson?

While the rest of the rotation is barely rolling along, Rookie of the Year candidate Simeon Woods Richardson’s tank may be bone dry. SWR didn’t make the Minnesota Twins rotation on Opening Day. It wasn’t until Louie Varland struggled out of the gate , before the almost 25-year-old Woods Richardson took over.

24 starts in, he owns an impressive 3.95 ERA. But that number has been on the rise, of late. He owned a 2.84 ERA , through 12 starts. Things have really started to fall off the rails in SWR’s last seven starts, which have resulted in a 5.79 ERA and he has a 28/15 K/BB, in that stretch. His velocity has been way down the last couple times out, too.

What’s wrong is probably a multi-faceted answer. As you can see from the top graphic ( Fangraphs ), Woods Richardson’s last outing on September 2nd featured his lowest velocity, since mid-July.

It’s very possible Simeon Woods Richardson is hitting a rookie wall. Last season, his 113 2/3 innings was a career high. He has already thrown 134 innings, in 2024. A Twins opener today, followed by Louie Varland, makes sense.

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They need to give more rest, not just to Woods Richardson, but to the other young arms in their rotation, including David Festa and Zebby Matthews. The Twins starting arms are depleted, after injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack .

Woods Richardson has the most experience among Baldelli’s rookie starters. It’s not a surprise for that his heightened production in 2024 coincides with a boost in velocity. But right now, he’s trending the wrong way, in the velocity department.

Rocco Baldelli needs the pitchers he has left in the rotation to be at their best, which makes the SWR trends concerning. This summer the Twins didn’t need to worry about a Game 3 starter. Of course they should have been adding rotation depth at multiple junctures , over the last year, and didn’t. But that’s a different discussion.

Who starts a Game 3 for the Minnesota Twins?

Prior to Ryan’s injury though, the playoff rotation would have featured Pablo Lopez, Ryan, and Bailey Ober. Now, the Minnesota Twins’ game-3 starter in a playoff series is a huge question mark. We thought Simeon Woods Richardson was a lock, but it doesn’t seem that way anymore.

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Since his recall in late July, Festa owns a 3.13 ERA and 2.94 FIP in just under 40 innings. After Lopez and Ober, the top 100 prospect has been the next best arm.

The answer is likely not that straightforward. Baldelli relying on experience, and rewarding Woods Richardson for his season, makes a good deal of sense. Festa would then be immediately ready out of the bullpen, as would Varland .

No matter who it winds up being, the Twins are in something of a pray-for-rain scenario behind their top two arms. Minnesota can piece together short series with this group, but it’s going to be a tightrope act.

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