Interim Secretary of Administration Sarah Clark releases Vermont’s revenue results for June 2024 on Friday, July 26. Led by the Personal Income Tax, the General Fund exceeded its monthly consensus cash flow target as adopted by the Emergency Board at its January 2024 meeting. The Transportation Fund and the Education Fund lagged their June targets. All three funds finished the fiscal year ahead of the cumulative consensus cash flow targets.
The PI, the GF’s most important revenue source, was nearly 17% above projections for the month and over $100 million ahead for the fiscal year, which ended June 30. Meanwhile, the other largest revenue sources had more modest results. The Corporate and Rooms & Meals taxes were right at their targets, while the Sales Tax fell below projections for the month and slightly for the year.
The state’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $302.6 million, exceeding the $286.3 million monthly consensus target by $16.3 million, or 5.7%. Combined receipts are $3,320.4 million, which is $143.6 million above the updated $3,176.8 million target tied to the annual fiscal year 2024 consensus forecast adopted at the January Emergency Board meeting.
General Fund revenues for June totaled $211.6 million, $23.4 million, or 12.4%, above the $188.2 million monthly consensus cash flow target. A $17.4 million aggregate outperformance in the Personal Income Tax category accounted for most of the gain. Outperformance by the estate tax and net interest also contributed. For the entire fiscal year, General Fund receipts are $139.0 million, or 6.5%, above the consensus cash flow target of $2.131.5 million adopted at the most recent Emergency Board meeting.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund lagged their $32.6 million June consensus target by -$3.7 million, or 11.4%. The two largest contributors to the underperformance were MV Purchase and Use and MV Fees, both of which were 15-20% below target for the month. This was offset by a small gain in the Other Fees category. Full fiscal year receipts were $3.7 million, or 1.2%, above their $299.4 million consensus cash flow target.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $62.1 million were -$3.3 million, or -5.1%, below their June$65.4 million cash flow target. Most of this negative discrepancy was accounted for by a -$2.3 million miss in the Sales & Use category and a -$1.2 million miss in the MV Purchase & Use category. For the full fiscal year, Education Fund receipts were $.9 million, 0.1%, above their $745.9 million consensus cash flow target.
According to Interim Secretary Clark: “The state ended the fiscal year in a healthy financial position. Personal income taxes were the main driver of our revenue performance, a reflection of the overall health of Vermont’s economy. Revised expectations will be presented to the Emergency Board next week as part of the July consensus revenue forecast.”
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