2024 Ally 400 odds, predictions, lineup, time: Model has surprising NASCAR at Nashville picks, leaderboard

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Music City on Sunday for the 2024 Ally 400, which begins at 3:30 p.m. ET at Nashville Superspeedway. There are only eight races remaining in the regular season, so every winless driver will be desperate to improve their playoff chances. Ross Chastain is among the winless drivers in the Cup Series standings, and he only has two top-five finishes this year. He won this race last year, but he is listed fourth in the 2024 Ally 400 odds at 15-2.

Kyle Larson is the 9-2 favorite on the NASCAR at Nashville odds board, followed by Denny Hamlin (11-2) and Martin Truex Jr. (7-1). Some of the other NASCAR at Nashville contenders include Christopher Bell (8-1) and Chase Elliott (17-2), but who should you back with your 2024 Ally 400 bets? Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Nashville predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Ally 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model .

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Ally 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Nashville leaderboard .

Top 2024 Ally 400 predictions

For the 2024 Ally 400, the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's an 18-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Nashville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The two-time Cup Series champion won the All-Star Race, but he is still trying to win his first points-paying race of the season.

Logano finished sixth at Iowa two weeks ago, fifth at World Wide Technology Raceway, and second at Richmond Raceway. He has a pair of top-10 finishes in his three appearances at this track, leading four laps during his ninth-place finish in 2022. Logano has a history of earning a strong starting position through qualifying in Nashville, which is another reason to back him as a longshot who has been improving in recent weeks.

Another massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the Vegas favorites at 9-1, fails to crack the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Ally 400 starting lineup. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion scored his first victory of the season with a dominant run in Iowa two weeks ago, leading 201 laps before taking the checkered flag.

However, he followed that up with a disappointing 25th-place finish despite qualifying second in New Hampshire last week. He's now eighth in the NASCAR standings and has finished 20th or worse in six of his last 10 starts this season. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine .

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Nashville picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2024 Ally 400 odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine .

So who wins the USA Ally 400 2024 at Nashville, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Nashville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Nashville leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year .

2024 Ally 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Nashville picks at SportsLine .

Kyle Larson 9-2
Denny Hamlin 11-2
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Ross Chastain 15-2
Christopher Bell 8-1
Chase Elliott 17-2
Ryan Blaney 9-1
William Byron 10-1
Tyler Reddick 10-1
Joey Logano 18-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Ty Gibbs 20-1
Chris Buescher 20-1
Kyle Busch 40-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
Josh Berry 50-1
Bubba Wallace 50-1
Corey Heim 60-1
Noah Gragson 75-1
Daniel Suarez 75-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Michael McDowell 125-1
Austin Cindric 150-1
Erik Jones 250-1
Todd Gilliland 300-1
Carson Hocevar 300-1
AJ Allmendinger 300-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Austin Dillon 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Zane Smith 1500-1
Harrison Burton 1500-1
Riley Herbst 1500-1
Chad Finchum 5000-1
Daniel Hemric 5000-1