After playing just 5 games in 2021 and 0 games in 2022, Ridley returned to the field in 2023. He recorded 76 receptions on 136 targets for 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns, giving him a WR17 finish in half-PPR formats. Despite Christian Kirk suffering a season-ending injury early in Week 13, Calvin Ridley's production barely changed for fantasy. Ridley averaged 11.3 PPR points per game from Week 1 - 12 and 11.2 PPR points from Week 13 - 18. He was the WR21 during both periods.
The player that was impacted the most by Kirk's injury was Evan Engram, who went from averaging 7.5 PPG from Week 1 -12 to 15.2 PPG from Week 13 - 18 (half-PPR formats. This was due to Ridley playing a very different role than Kirk's. Ridley was used primarily downfield last season. He had the 9th highest aDOT at 13.9 yards. Ridley also had the 4th most targets of 20+ air yards last season. This was likely one of the factors that drew the Titans' interest.
Tennessee signed Ridley to a massive contract this off-season. He inked a four-year, 92 million-dollar contract with 50 million dollars guaranteed. That is a massive deal for a Wide Receiver who will turn 30 in December. One of the reasons they were so aggressive in bringing in Ridley was his ability to deliver big plays downfield. The Titans' starting quarterback heading into this year is Will Levis.
Levis threw the ball 20+ yards downfield on 22.4% of his pass attempts (minimum of 30), the highest in the league by a whopping 8.1%. The Titans' starting quarterback heading into 2023 was Ryan Tannehill, who finished 4th in this category. DeAndre Hopkins will play out the last year of his contract with the Titans in 2024.
Last season, Hopkins led the league in targets of 20+ yards with 39. Of those targets, he had just 12 receptions. That gave him a 30.8% reception percentage, which was 20th among 28 wide receivers with at least 20 targets. Hopkins will play this season at 32 years old, though, and should see fewer targets downfield.
Therefore, Levis needed another downfield threat if the Titans wanted him to capitalize on his natural tendencies. The Titans are embracing a lot of change this off-season. They brought in Brian Callahan to take over as their Head Coach.
He was the Cincinnati Bengals' Offensive Coordinator from 2019 - 2023. In both of the last two years, the Bengals finished with the 7th-most passing attempts as a team, averaging 613 pass attempts per season.
In 3 of the last 4 seasons, the Titans finished with the 30th most pass attempts. They averaged 478 pass attempts during those 3 seasons. Callahan's play-calling tendencies and the Titan's off-season moves both point toward the Titans throwing the ball much more.
Even if incoming free agents Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard take some work away from Ridley, the increase in passing volume should be enough for Ridley to return on his current value. Ridley is currently going at 6.11 overall and as the WR33 off the board.
Our consensus projections for Ridley in the 2024 season would be 64 receptions, 877 yards, 6 touchdowns through the air, and 1 carries for 7 yards and no rushing touchdown.
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