Evacuating Tahoe could take twice as long as projected, simulations indicate

Traffic backed up on Hwy 50 as people evacuated from the Caldor Fire on August 30, 2021 in South Lake Tahoe, California. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

An evacuation of residents and visitors from the north shore of the Tahoe basin could take more than two to three times as long as local officials project, according to simulations released Wednesday that depict how an emergency exodus could result in “hours-long, potentially life-threatening slow evacuations.”

The simulations are part of an effort born out of the frustration of Tahoe residents whose requests to the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency for roadway and wildfire capacity studies in line with best practices laid out by the California attorney general have been ignored, says longtime firefighting and planning professional Doug Flaherty, founder of the non-profit Tahoe Clean Air.

“Local agencies have evacuation plans and TRPA is helping coordinate at the regional level,” TRPA spokesman Jeff Cowen said via email. “The kind of analysis that the study organizers appear to want has not been suggested by fire and evacuation management agencies or the TRPA Governing Board. If a roadway capacity study like the one suggested were undertaken, it would most likely be led by those agencies and TRPA would remain in a supportive and facilitative role.”

“A number of community members have become frustrated with TRPA and the local agencies over the last three years, while realizing that the Tahoe Basin is over capacity,” says Flaherty, who paid $100,000 for the simulation but hopes to recoup his investment through donations to his non-profit.

“Based on over 400 wildfire evacuation simulations, this first-of-its-kind, publicly transparent analysis aims to raise government land use planning and public awareness of potential evacuation limitations in Tahoe,” Flaherty says. “It achieves this using artificial intelligence (AI) technology coupled with credible, real-life subject matter expertise.”

The simulations and an accompanying report are generated by AI technology firms PyroAnalysis and Ladris, in conjunction with veteran firefighters and emergency management experts involved in catastrophic wildfires including the deadly Camp Fire in 2018, which claimed 85 lives and burned some 14,000 homes in Paradise, CA.

Flaherty notes the Camp Fire “grew at a rate of a football field a second” in an area less densely populated than the Tahoe basin, which is estimated to have 55,000 residents and thousands of visitors at any given time.

Flaherty, who began fighting fires out of high school, has more than 50 years experience as a fire professional, and retired as a battalion chief in the San Luis Obispo and Orange County fire departments. Shane Lauderdale, the former chief of the Chico Fire Department, who served as an operations chief during the Camp Fire, assisted with producing the simulations, as did John Messina, a veteran of CAL FIRE’s Northern Region Operations and Resource Management Program, and the incident commander at the Camp Fire in Paradise.

“In short, this citizen-led effort is to try to avoid another Paradise or Lahaina-scale tragedy,” says Incline Village resident Pamela Tsigdinos, a vocal critic of the Tahoe basin’s local and regional agencies she says have prioritized tourism over safety.

The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency estimates some 25 million tourists visit Tahoe each year, contributing to roadways that resemble parking lots. Officials have long acknowledged that the mostly two-lane roads out of the Tahoe basin would be overwhelmed in the event of an emergency evacuation, with one lane closed to traffic to accommodate emergency vehicles.

“Yet agencies continue to pursue land use and project approvals and policies that bring more people into the Tahoe basin, with seemingly little concern to provide a publicly transparent data driven evacuation analysis indicating how long it will take to get them out of the area in case of a no-notice evacuation emergency,” says Flaherty. “From a life safety standpoint this is dangerous, irresponsible and not sustainable.”

The simulation envisions a fast-moving wildfire requiring evacuation of Tahoe’s Incline Village.  Evacuating some 13,151 vehicles from Incline, a popular tourist destination with numerous hotels and more than 1,000 vacation rentals, would take seven hours and 20 minutes, if all roads were accessible, according to the first simulation .

In another simulation , State Route 28, the main highway that surrounds Lake Tahoe, is closed at Stateline. The estimated evacuation time in that scenario is just over nine hours.

Another simulation envisions State Route 431 closed at Fairview, resulting in an evacuation time of just under nine hours.

The final simulation projects the closure of SR 28 at Sand Harbor, resulting again in a nine-hour evacuation.

Washoe County, which includes Incline Village, projected in 2022 that an evacuation of 3,842 vehicles, less than a third of the number envisioned in Flaherty’s simulation, would take a minimum of six hours.

TRPA employs ‘fire, aim, ready’ approach to managing Tahoe, say critics

Washoe County’s plan does not account for “ background traffic, a substantial number of publicly parked cars, or vehicles attached to hotel guests and business workers, all of which Ladris AI has the capability of analyzing using modern technology,” Flaherty said. “I am not sure Washoe took into account the number of parked cars at Sand Harbor State park (which can accommodate 500 vehicles), or the common summer months occurrence of up to a thousand vehicles parked up and down Highway 28 from Incline Village to the Douglas County Line.”

Flaherty adds the county’s evacuation plan does not account for road closures that would be likely during an emergency evacuation.

“The six-hour estimate was for the resident base, but it is now outdated and we don’t have an updated estimate because we do not have the funding for a study,” Washoe County spokeswoman Bethany Drysdale said via email, adding the county is seeking funds for the study, which she says is expensive. “Make no mistake that the minute the funding comes through we will engage in a study to improve our data, planning, and response actions as appropriate.”

A community member with knowledge of the county’s process who asked not to be identified in order to provide information, says a presentation on the necessity for an evacuation plan “never went anywhere. We were told it was not going to get into the budget. The priorities had already been set.”

Tsigdinos, an Incline Village resident, says Washoe County, by focusing solely on residents, is ignoring “the wildcard of thousands of visitors coming into the Tahoe basin who are unaware what county they’re in —let alone what alert system exists to let them know a hazard or danger exists.”

‘Initial and ongoing panic’

The simulation’s evacuation of Placer County, which is adjacent to Washoe County’s Incline Village, envisions a fast-moving wildfire approaching the area from the east near the California-Nevada border.

Evacuating Placer County residents and visitors in the simulation’s projected 17,577 vehicles could take nine to more than 13 hours, according to the simulation – far more than the 3.7 hours projected by the 2016 Placer County, CA Environmental Impact Statement .

Another simulation, shown in a screenshot , assumes the closure of Highway 89 northbound and southbound, and an evacuation time of nine hours and 37 minutes.

Closing SR 28 eastbound would extend the evacuation duration to nine hours and 44 minutes, according to the simulation .

Closing both SR 28 eastbound and Highway 267 northbound results in an evacuation duration of 13 hours and 16 minutes.

An evacuation with Highway 89 northbound closed to traffic would take nine hours and 2 minutes.

The longest evacuation, according to the simulation, envisions the closures of 89 northbound and 267 northbound, with a duration of 13 hours and 19 minutes.

“Emergency evacuation conditions would likely result in traffic demand that exceeds roadway capacities under any scenario and at any hour,” says Placer County’s 2017 area plan and environmental impact statement.

Placer County officials did not respond to requests for comment.

In an email, the Placer County Sheriff’s Office, which is charged with executing evacuations, said it is unable to comment on a report that had yet to be released and offered to do so in the future.

“The Placer County Sheriff’s Office does hold an annual training in the Tahoe Basin with local law and fire districts so that we are coordinated in our response and familiar with evacuating the North Tahoe region, should it be necessary,” a spokeswoman said.

Last year, retired and former members and volunteers of the Placer County Fire Department warned county officials in a 15-page letter that its area plan, which includes greater development density, as well as reduced parking and setbacks, “will most likely result in increased wildfire evacuation impacts,” predominantly in town centers and mixed-use areas, which would likely become evacuation “choke points”, creating a “sudden surge” of motorists and pedestrians on roads that are already over capacity.

The letter says “initial and ongoing panic, dense and debilitating smoke, nighttime impacts, loss of cell phone service, as well as downed electrified power lines… are common factors in limiting traffic capacity to egress points.”

The letter includes a link to bodycam video of the 2018 Camp Fire that includes radio communications reporting the location of individuals who are unable to evacuate, residents stuck in traffic as fire burns around them, and a report of a woman who is in labor stuck in the traffic.

Placer County’s plan, according to the fire professionals, fails to address a number of scenarios “where traffic surge gridlock may take place resulting in panic among residents and visitors who feel they have no choice but to flee into nearby Lake Tahoe Waters,” as did victims of last year’s Lahaina fire in Hawaii, which killed at least 55 people.

Additional simulations for the Tahoe area will be available next month at TahoeCleanAir.org.

“This analysis underscores the need for Tahoe policy makers to provide better, more transparent public safety planning,” says Flaherty. “Officials need to take a reality-based approach to land use planning decisions to help avoid issues experienced in other major wildfires.”

Note: Updated with comment from TRPA.