PFF says Derek Carr's late-season surge is cause for optimism in 2024

It took some time for Derek Carr to find his bearings with the New Orleans Saints, but you can’t say the quarterback didn’t finish his 2023 season strong. A large part of that was due to change in practice habits. The Saints emphasized their red zone offense, somewhere Carr had always struggled, and by year’s end his teammate Demario Davis was boasting about Carr being the best red-zone passer in the league.

The team at Pro Football Focus was certainly impressed by his improvement. PFF’s Dalton Wasserman pointed to Carr’s progress as the biggest reason for optimism about the Saints’ chances in 2024:

Derek Carr’s Saints tenure got off to a rocky start, as he posted a mediocre 67.5 passing grade through his first 10 games. However, over his final seven games, he earned an 84.4 passing grade, the fifth-best mark in the NFL in that span, after developing better chemistry with Chris Olave. Olave posted his three highest receiving yardage totals within the final six weeks of the season.

The Saints will hope to ride that newfound chemistry, as well as one of the NFL’s best secondaries, to an NFC South title. The question will be whether they can hold up in the trenches on both sides of the ball. If they are at least competent there, especially in pass protection, they can return to the postseason following a three-year absence.

Of course things are different now. The offensive coordinator Carr was working with, Pete Carmichael, was fired and replaced by Klint Kubiak. He’s had to learn a new offense with different concepts and its own terminology. But the hope is for Kubiak’s system to work to Carr’s strengths, putting him in position to make more plays and experience fewer hurdles.

Everything rides on things going as planned. If Carr has another slow start and the Saints stumble out of the gate, they’re going to be in trouble. Missing the playoffs four years in a row when Dennis Allen was sold to fans as a coach who could guide the team to the postseason — with Carr, his handpicked $150 million quarterback, out in front — could be disastrous. Hopefully Kubiak’s offense is as strong a fit for Carr as the Saints envision. They can’t afford to find out that it isn’t.