Chris Olave has shown that he is a top-tier Wide Receiver in the NFL over his first two years. However, he has struggled to establish a connection with Derek Carr in his first season with the Saints. This year, the duo will look to get on the same page under new Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak. Olave’s 13.9 yard aDOT tied for the sixth highest last season among Wide Receivers with at least 80 targets.
Olave had the 4th most targets of 20+ yards last season (32) but only caught 25% of those passes. That 25% reception percentage ranked 63rd of 77 Wide Receivers with at least 10 targets of 20+ yards. Olave had the 3rd most Unrealized Air Yards in the league last season with 1,058 yards. The Saints' current WR2 is Rashid Shaheed. Despite Shaheed ranking 53rd in routes run last year, he ranked 21st in targets of 20+ yards. Shaheed however pulled in 12 of those targets giving him the 8th highest reception percentage on targets of 20+ yards.
If Olave can get on the same page as Shaheed and Carr were on last year, we will see more big plays from Olave and potentially a higher touchdown total than his career-high of 5. Olave finished as WR19 last year in half-PPR formats. If he scored just two more touchdowns, he would’ve jumped over players like Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, and Michael Pittman Jr. to be WR15 last season.
Chris Olave is an elite route runner with great athleticism. This is reflected in Matt Harmon’s reception perception, where you can see he had a success rate vs. men in the 87th percentile of Wide Receivers. He was also in the 76th percentile in his success rate vs. zone coverage and in the 82nd percentile vs. press coverage. Olave can only go as far as Carr will take him, though. Hopefully, the switch to a more modern system with more pre-snap motion will help create more mismatches for Olave.
Last year, the Saints had a pre-snap motion on just 13% of their plays, which ranked 27th in the NFL. The 5 teams who finished with the most pre-snap motion last year were all in the top 9 scoring offenses last year. Look for Olave to build off of a promising first two years in the NFL.
Our consensus projections for Olave in the 2024 season would be: 103 receptions, 1294 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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