Yankees’ struggles at home, in AL East could prove to be downfall

The Yankees needed extra innings at home to beat the AL East’s worst team last Sunday. Thus, requiring a decisive game — and then a bit more — to top the Blue Jays 4-3 in 10 innings to clinch the season series 7-6 against perhaps the majors’ most disappointing club.

All of that underscored two issues that have beset the Yankees this season — they have not played particularly well within the AL East, nor in The Bronx. Can they win the division nevertheless? Sure. They were hanging with the Orioles atop the AL East by excelling on the road and outside of the division. But it is a much harder (no pun intended) road.

It would defy their history to be meh in these areas and still wind up earning a first-round playoff bye and getting home-field advantage — if there is an advantage at home — if they cannot reverse what is going on in the 10451 zip code.

Because the Yankees followed their series against the Blue Jays, who had the fourth-worst record in the AL, by losing two of three at home to the atrocious Angels, who had the third-worst mark. It accentuated more and more that in 2024 this is The House That Truth Built — for the facts are the facts: the Yankees simply do not win in their ballpark in a fashion familiar to seasons in which they were elite.

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Overall, they entered Saturday with a winning record at Yankee Stadium at 30-26. But that was the 15th-best home record in the majors. More disturbing is that in their last eight series in The Bronx, the Yankees were 1-6-1 and their overall record in that time was 9-18 — their worst home stretch of 27 games since they also went 9-18 in 1992. That was the last year they were below .500 for the season (they were last below .500 at home in 1991).

The Yankees’ .536 winning percentage at home this year through Friday was the third-worst for the franchise in the wild-card era (since 1995). The only worse were the .531 of 2013 and the .519 of last season — two years in which they missed the postseason.

It is strange that this version of the Yankees is struggling in the venue of the short right-field porch , considering that the roster has been returned to the kind of lefty balance badly lacking in recent years. The Yankees had 2,124 lefty at-bats prior to Saturday — more than every complete season since 2018 — with their best combined lefty OPS at home since 2019.

But familiarly for the 2024 Yankees, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto had teamed for a 1.036 OPS at home while everyone else was at .669 as Alex Verdugo (.615), Gleyber Torres (.604) and DJ LeMahieu (.550) particularly have been home detriments. Soto’s home OPS was 1.007 in 239 plate appearances compared to the other Yankee lefties at .671 in 738 plate appearances.

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Meanwhile, in these last eight Bronx series, the Yankees have been out-homered 49-22 and their staff ERA has soared to 4.97 in those 27 games.

And, remember, the Yankees actually have a winning record at home. They do not within the AL East at 22-23. And the team with the best record within the AL East has won the division title each of the past seven seasons and 11 out of 12. The only divergence was 2017 when the Red Sox won the division while going 41-35 inside it and the Yankees were the wild card despite being 44-32. Perhaps the strength within the division should have revealed the mettle of those Yankees, since they reached ALCS Game 7.

Baltimore just lost two of three to Toronto, yet nevertheless have a 24-12 record within the division. The Red Sox were next best at 14-13. Do not devalue how little Boston has played in the division because 13 of their final 33 games will be against Tampa Bay and Toronto, two of the biggest sellers at the trade deadline and, thus, possessing less talent than the rosters the Yankees faced for the most part.

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The Yankees have completed their season series against Tampa Bay and Toronto, going 7-6 against both while being 4-5 against Boston and 4-6 against Baltimore.

The Yankees have had a losing record within the AL East five times in the last 20 years and missed the playoffs in four of them. They have won the division title eight times in the past 20 seasons and had the best inside the division record in seven of them.

Again the difference between Judge and Soto vs. the other four AL East teams (1.144) and the rest of the squad (.694) is stark, with Verdugo at .492 particularly noticeable. Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman have combined for 19 starts within the division with a 6.31 ERA. Clay Holmes has four of his MLB-high nine blown saves within the AL East and a 5.91 ERA.

The Yankees had overcome their problems within their home and within their division to be tied with the Orioles for the AL East lead as the weekend began. It is hard to think they can finish atop the division if this persists, though. They went into Saturday’s doubleheader against the Rangers with 25 home games left and just seven AL East games.

But all seven against the Red Sox and Orioles come in the final two weeks of the season … at Yankee Stadium.

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