NASCAR predictions: Cook Out 400 picks, odds, best bets

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The NASCAR Cup Series is back following a two-week break for the Summer Olympics.

The Cup Series returns with a trip to Richmond Raceway for the Cook Out 400.

It’ll be the first time the Cup Series visits a track twice in the 2024 season after Richmond hosted a race on Easter Sunday.

Denny Hamlin took advantage of a late caution to score the victory.

BetMGM has Hamlin as one of the co-favorites (+475) for Sunday’s race alongside Christopher Bell.

Kyle Larson (+525) and Martin Truex Jr. (+550) are not far behind.

Here are my best bets:

Brad Keselowski top-5 finish (+250, bet365 )

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Keselowski came agonizingly close to winning the Brickyard 400, as it appeared he saved enough fuel to capture the win.

However, a late caution forced him to pit from the lead.

Surprisingly, he has only two top-10 finishes in his last seven races, but that should change at Richmond, where he has six top-fives and 15 top-10s in 29 career starts.

He might have had the car to beat in last year’s Summer race where he led a field-high 102 laps.

Keselowski has been a consistent top-10 contender at the short flat tracks in 2024.

Richmond has long been one of his best tracks. I expect him to break out of his mini-slump with a strong top-five run.

Josh Berry top-10 finish (+120, bet365)

There aren’t many surprises among the best drivers at short flat tracks in 2024. The one surprise that stands out is Berry.

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Berry has excelled on the track type, posting the seventh-best speed across the five races.

He has that good of a mark despite a rough performance at Phoenix.

Since then, he hasn’t been worse than ninth in total speed.

Berry barely missed a top 10 in the Richmond Spring race, but his average running position was eighth. He finished seventh and third at the last two short flat tracks.

Keep an eye out for the No. 4 car on Sunday. Kevin Harvick took that car to victory lane in the 2022 Summer race at Richmond.

Joey Logano to win Group B (+240, DraftKings )

Logano is on pace to have his worst season with Penske Racing, but there have been a few highlights.

His first great run of the season came with a runner-up finish at Richmond.

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Richmond has long been a great track for Logano.

Over the last eight races, he has one finish worse than seventh. I expect him to contend for another top-five finish as he battles Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and William Byron.

Blaney and Elliott have better numbers on short flat tracks in 2024, but neither can match Logano’s consistency at Richmond.

Byron has been in contention at the track, but his short-flat track speed has been lacking. All in all, Logano should pace this group of four drivers.

Winning manufacture: Toyota (+110, DraftKings)

This was one of my favorite bets from the Richmond Spring race, and it cashed with a Hamlin win.

We enter Sunday’s race with Toyota representing the favorites.

Hamlin is a five-time winner at Richmond, finishing worse than fourth once in his last seven starts at the track.

Truex had the Spring race won before a late caution.

He led 228 laps, marking the 10th time in the last 15 races he’s led 80-plus laps at Richmond.

Don’t count out Bell, who has been the driver to beat on short flat tracks in 2024.

There’s a great chance the winner comes from that group. Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace should also be in contention.

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