AFC North preview and predictions: QBs make the difference in tight division

Steve Serby previews the AFC North as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2024 NFL season.

Coach: John Harbaugh

2023 record: 13-4

O/U wins: 10.5

Key additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board, CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Devontez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa

Key departures: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone

First-and-goal: Dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP again and he’s 10 pounds lighter. Henry, even at 30, should be a perfect pick-your-poison fit. TE Mark Andrews is healthy and second-year WR Zay Flowers (77 catches and five TDs) is the No. 1 receiver. Backup TE Isaiah Likely (five TDs) is an athletic weapon. LT Ronnie Stanley needs to stay on the field. Center Tyler Linderbaum is a stud. DL Justin Madubuike (13 sacks) and run-stuffer Michael Pierce both Play Like A Raven. Safety Kyle Hamilton is a Pro Bowler. Corner looks good with Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens and nickel Arthur Maulet (knee). MLB Roquan Smith (148 tackles) was instrumental in anchoring a defense that was the first to rank first in fewest points allowed (16.5), most sacks (60) and most takeaways (31) in a single season. Under Todd Monken, the offense finished fourth in scoring (28.4 ppg) and sixth in offense. Kicker Justin Tucker is automatic. Harbaugh is elite.

Fourth-and-long: Three O-linemen must be replaced. Second-year Rosengarten replaces Moses. Can DC Zach Orr replace Mike Macdonald? Will first-round pick Nate Wiggins be filling in for Maulet? The schedule is difficult — Chiefs, Texans, Eagles and Bills, plus their divisional opponents. Can Jackson get over the playoff hump and reach a Super Bowl?

Prediction: 10-7. Jackson and Henry make for a deadly 1-2 ground attack .

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Coach: Zac Taylor

2023 record: 9-8

O/U wins: 10.5

Key additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell, OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins Jr., WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton

Key departures: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott

First-and-goal: QB Joe Burrow is healthy. WR Ja’Marr Chase is elite and WR Tee Higgins is Robin to his Batman. The secondary (65 completions of 20 or more yards) has been upgraded with the arrival of Stone and the return of Bell. Moss and Chase Brown replace RB Joe Mixon. DC Lou Anarumo is from Staten Island and reads The Post’s sports section. DE Trey Hendrickson (17.5 sacks) is elite. LB Logan Wilson recorded a career-high 135 tackles last season. Clutch kicker Evan McPherson signed a three-year extension. Three of their first four games are against teams with either a first-year head coach or rookie quarterback — or both.

Fourth-and-long: Chase was a contract extension training camp holdout . Reader was an elite run-stuffer and left for the Lions. Boyd takes his 67 receptions to Tennessee. LT Orlando Brown Jr. needs to step it up. Can Dan Pitcher replace Brian Callahan as offensive coordinator?

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Prediction: 10-7. Burrow-to-Chase. Burrow-to-Higgins.

Coach: Kevin Stefanski

2023 record: 11-6

O/U wins: 8.5

Key additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown, DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter

Key departures: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki

First-and-goal: Jim Schwartz coordinates the league’s top-ranked defense. Myles Garrett (14 sacks) is as good as it gets, and Za’Darius Smith is a quality bookend. LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and CB Denzel Ward are coming off Pro Bowl seasons. Stefanski was NFL Coach of the Year. The O-line — once healthy — will return intact. No. 1 WR Amari Cooper is 30 but he’s notched six 1,000-yard seasons. TE David Njoku (81 catches) was a threat as a second option. RB Jerome Ford was a pleasant surprise last season. Winston is one of the better backup QBs.

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Fourth-and-long: QB Deshaun Watson has fallen from elite company and has been dealing with shoulder soreness. RB Nick Chubb (knee surgery) will be on a pitch count whenever he returns. Four of the first six games are on the road. LT Jedrick Wills Jr. (knee) may not be ready for the season opener. If Jeudy had played like a former first-round pick, Sean Payton wouldn’t have unloaded him .

Prediction: 8-8-1. Watson is plagued by shoulder issues and isn’t quarterback enough to compete with Burrow and Jackson.

Coach: Mike Tomlin

2023 record: 10-7

O/U wins: 8.5

Key additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston, OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick

Key departures: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, CB Levi Wallace

First-and-goal: OLB T. J. Watt (19 sacks) is elite. Tomlin has never had a losing record. WR George Pickens has a chance for a breakout season. RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are a nice 1-2 tandem. TE Pat Freiermuth caught 123 passes in 2021 and 2022. DT Cameron Heyward is a respected captain, six-time Pro Bowler and leader. Queen (133 tackles, 3.5 sacks) was poached from the Ravens. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is a stud and second-year CB Joey Porter Jr. is a talent. The kicking game is in good feet with K Chris Boswell and P Cameron Johnston.

Fourth-and-long: How much of an upgrade will QBs Wilson and Fields be? Two rookies start on the O-line. Can Jefferson and/or rookie WR Roman Wilson replace Johnson? DT Cameron Heyward is 35. Was hiring conservative OC Arthur Smith the right move?

Prediction: 8-8-1. Fields takes over for Wilson and shows his usual flashes but reminds us that he remains a developmental project lacking a receiver opposite Pickens.

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