AFC South preview and predictions: Loaded Texans set up for deep playoff run

Mark Cannizzaro previews the AFC South as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2024 NFL season.

Coach: DeMeco Ryans

2023 record: 10-7 | O/U wins: 9.5

Key additions: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Joe Mixon, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Folorunso Fatukaski, DE Denico Autry, DT Mario Edwards, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Myles Bryant, CB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher

Key departures: RB Devin Singletary, LB Jonathan Greenard, DT Maliek Collins, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Blake Cashman, CB Steven Nelson, CB Tavierre Thomas

First-and-goal: No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud averaged 273.9 passing yards per game as a rookie in ’23. Can you imagine how much better that may get with Diggs added to Nico Collins (8 TDs, 16.2 yards per catch last season) and Tank Dell (7 TDs, 15.2)? The Texans spent big money in the offseason, signing TE Dalton Schultz to a three-year deal and Collins got a $72 million extension. Houston also signed Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks for Minnesota, and Autry, who had a career-best 11.5 sacks last year for Tennessee.

Fourth-and-long: The Texans ranked 23rd in the league in passing defense, yielding 3,979 yards through the air, and that needs to come down in ’24. They added CBs Okudah and Bryant to help that area and hope Lassiter, their first-round pick, can become a shutdown corner. Autry will miss the first six games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

Prediction: 11-6. The addition of Diggs and Mixon to an already-explosive offense should push the Texans deeper into the playoffs than they got a year ago.

NFL power rankings: Where all 32 teams stand at start of 2024 season

Coach: Doug Pederson

2023 record: 9-8 | O/U wins: 8.5

Key additions: QB Mac Jones, WR Gabe Davis, WR Devin Duvernay, C Mitch Morse, G Ezra Cleveland, DL Arik Armstead, S Darnell Savage, CB Ronald Darby, WR Brian Thomas, DT Maason Smith

Key departures: WR Calvin Ridley, WR Zay Jones, DT Folorunso Fatukasi, DE Dawuane Smoot, LB K’Lavon Chaisson, S Rayshawn Jenkins, CB Darious Williams

First-and-goal: QB Trevor Lawrence and his $275 million extension in the offseason are the key to everything for the Jags. He lost his top receiver in Ridley but added some weapons, as well, in Davis and Thomas, the first-rounder. The Jags started 8-3 before losing five of their final six games and missing the postseason after leading the division for two months. Pederson responded by firing most of his defensive staff and letting three veteran starters walk in free agency.

Fourth-and-long: Lawrence must be better with ball security. He cannot duplicate the 21-turnover season he had in ’23 or else a playoff berth will be out of the question. The defense must improve from the 5,828 yards it yielded last season (ranked 22nd), including 4,076 through the air (ranked 26th). Lawrence was sacked a career-high 35 times and ended four games with injuries. The Jaguars need Morse and Cleveland to improve an O-line that ranked among the worst in the league.

NFC South preview and predictions: Buccaneers, Falcons battle for supremacy

Prediction: 10-7. The Jags will avoid the late-season swoon of 2023 (1-5 to close) and contend for a wild-card berth.

Coach: Shane Steichen

2023 record: 9-8 | O/U wins: 8.5

Key additions: QB Joe Flacco, DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OT Matt Goncalves

Key departures: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DL Jake Martin

First-and-goal: A healthy QB Anthony Richardson , the fourth-overall pick in 2023, should make a massive difference after his rookie year was wrecked by a shoulder injury in Week 5. A healthy Richardson will make WRs Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Mitchell better, as well as RB Jonathan Taylor. Richardson should have more help this season with all five starting offensive linemen back, 2021 NFL rushing champ Taylor happy and healthy and possibly the Colts’ strongest receiving groups in years.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR OUR STARTING LINEUP NEWSLETTER

Fourth-and-long: Defense was the Colts’ Achilles heel in ’23, ranked 28th in points allowed (415), 31st in plays by opposing offenses (1,137) and 24th in yards allowed (5,947). They didn’t add a lot of personnel from last year’s team, which makes you wonder how much better they’ll be in ’24.

Prediction: 9-8. Richardson will make a difference, but the defense is a concern.

Coach: Brian Callahan

2023 record: 6-11 | O/U wins: 6.5

Key additions: QB Mason Rudolph, RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tyler Boyd, DE Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Kenneth Murray Jr., CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Jamal Adams, S Quandre Diggs, OT JC Latham, DT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Ernest Jones

Key departures: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR Chris Moore, TE Kevin Rader, DE Denico Autry, DT Kyle Peko, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, S K’Von Wallace, CB Kristian Fulton

First-and-goal: Gone are mainstays in Tannehill, Henry and head coach Mike Vrabel after going 13-21 the last two seasons. Callahan was hired to develop QB Will Levis in the West Coast offense under the watch of OC Nick Holz. Levis should be helped by the addition of Ridley, who had a terrific 2023 (76 catches, 1,016 yards). Ownership made the Titans among the NFL’s top spenders in free agency, filling holes and surrounding Levis with a lot of help in his second season.

Fourth-and-long: The Titans defense forced only 14 turnovers in 2023, ranked second-to-last in the league. That number increasing, along with Levis improving in Year 2, will be key.

Prediction: 6-11. Slight improvement from 2023, but lots of changes and moving parts may be too much.

For the latest in sports, top headlines, breaking news and more, visit nypost.com/sports/