Super Bowl betting: Does the spread matter?

(BetMGM) In a typical NFL season, the spread matters in approximately 20% of games. That means in 80% of games, the winning team also covers the spread — in other words, the spread didn’t matter.

It’s a similar rate in Super Bowls. In only 11 of 57 Super Bowls (18%) did the favorite win the game but fail to cover.

As of Tuesday at BetMGM, the San Francisco 49ers were a 1-point favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. If that number holds until kickoff on Feb. 11 and the 49ers win by exactly 1 point, the spread will matter. It will be a push for bettors who took the 49ers at -1.

If there’s any other outcome, the spread won’t matter. Therefore if you’re betting on the Super Bowl spread at its current number, you’re highly likely betting on the winner.

Do small spreads favor either favorites or underdogs?

No. In fact, historically, they’re both losers.

In all NFL regular-season and postseason games with a spread of 2 or lower since the 2003-'04 season, favorites cover 51.8% of the time. Outright, favorites win 53% of those games.

In both cases, neither the favorites nor the underdogs are profitable.

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Super Bowl spreads, sportsbook promos — including BetMGM Kansas promos — and more. You can also see the point spreads for each Super Bowl .