SNIDER: Endlessly will win the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby has plenty of tales of misfits, long shots and unlikely winners, but Saturday’s 150th running makes room for a new legend – a grass runner who loves the dirt.

Endlessly is 2-0 on dirt after taking three of his first four races on grass. That a proven turf runner would be shifted to the dirt is rare, but then winning top races is an even bigger long shot. Endlessly may be 30-1 in the Derby with only three percent of the crowd believing in the son of modest stallion Oscar Performance.

But, the Derby often goes to stretch runners separating from 19 rivals at the top of the stretch. Endlessly will have to wear down favorite Fierceness to earn the roses, but passing six rivals late in his last victory shows the former’s gameness.

Endlessly takes the Derby by one-half length over fellow long shot Resilience with Fierceness third. That’s a 14-19-17 triple.

Please bring a bag for all the cash that wager pays.

It’s a solid Derby field with eight runners capable of winning. Run this race 10 times and four different colts probably win.

But it’s a one-shot moment over two minutes often not won by the best horse, which this time is Fierceness. His 13-length victory in the Florida Derby was Fierceness’ second victory with a 100-plus speed rating. Nobody else in the field comes close to his speed.

Still, Fierceness must overcome a far outside No. 17 post. Oh, standout jockey John Velazquez is an excellent rider that certainly angles for the lead on the first turn, but at what cost? Does Fierceness have the stamina to win a 1¼-mile face run at suicidal early fractions? If Velazquez can slow the field along the backstretch to save one last surge in the final eighth mile, the 5-2 favorite is tough enough to repel challengers. But, that’s a big ask as the wire nears.

Resilience likes to stalk early leaders and make a late push. He’ll probably be farther from the lead than usual, but this son of Ghostzapper threw some elbows at the New York traffic like a tourist caught in Times Square traffic angling to see the Naked Cowboy perform. Resilience will be a little too far back to win, but can grab second in a tight finish.

There are a few other long shots to throw in your triples. Catching Freedom, Catalytic and West Saratoga are worth investing. If Endlessly and Resilience (20-1) finish 1-2, though, that exacta will rain Benjamins.

And then we’re off to the Preakness with house money.