SNIDER: Picking Preakness takes some Imagination

The Preakness Stakes underwent a major do-over for handicappers. The midweek loss of favorite Muth and expected wet track turns Saturday’s runaway race into anyone’s race.

But, it doesn’t take a lot of Imagination to return trainer Bob Baffert to his ninth winner’s circle. All Imagination needs to do is get the early lead and he’ll whistle to a wire-to-wire victory over Kentucky Derby-winner Mystik Dan with off-track lover and long shot Uncle Heavy third.

Yes, a 9-5-2 triple that pays just enough for a grandstand admission. Still, small payoffs beat no payoffs.

Muth would have won this race easily, but was withdrawn because of a high temperature on Wednesday. Still, Baffert also brought Imagination, a California runner who has never finished worth than second in six starts and lost the Santa Anita Derby by a neck.

It’s scary to pick a West Coast runner over East Coast mud because SoCal tracks are like paved highways. Can Imagination handle the goo? The colt has to get to the early lead because there’s no telling how he would handle mud in his face.

Luckily, Imagination has jockey Frankie Dettori, one of the game’s top riders. Dettori must hustle Imagination to the early lead despite the outside No. 8 post. If Imagination is midpack on the first turn, he’s done. This is where the race is won or lost and Dettori is smart enough not to miss this opportunity.

Mystik Dan jockey Brian Hernandez delivered a brilliant ride to win a three-way photo in the Derby. Mystik Dan was 18-1 in the Derby, but his speed ratings are legit. The big problem is the colt likes to run midpack and turn loose on the final turn. On a fast track, that might take the Preakness.

Pimlico’s track dries quickly so if expected rains diminish a couple hours beforehand and the surface improves to good then Mystik Dan’s late surge might win. So, this is a little like betting on weather forecasters being right. For now, a wet track foils Mystik Dan’s Triple Crown bid.

Uncle Heavy is the legitimate wet track runner, winning both times. If the colt gets a clean trip, he’s a warrior at the wire. With 20-1 odds, Uncle Heavy’s worth including in triples.

There really isn’t a throw-out in this race aside Mugatu. Catching Freedom was a late-running fourth in the Derby. Seize the Grey won a stakes on the Derby undercard and trainer D. Wayne Lukas has five Preakness wins. Just Steel was bumped badly in the Derby to lose all chance, but could hit the board. Tuscan Gold is green with three starts and may be better in fall stakes.

It's a good betting race and maybe reminiscent of the three-way 1997 Preakness finish when Baffert’s Silver Charm won. Once again, the white-haired trainer may survive a frightening finish.