Stanley Cup Final betting preview: Who will hoist the Cup?

The 2024 Stanley Cup Final will begin this Saturday, and we should be in for a fantastic series between two of the best teams all season long. The Edmonton Oilers have the star power in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, while the Florida Panthers are playing in their second-straight Stanley Cup Final and are loaded throughout.

The NHL struck gold with this series, in my humble opinion, and now it's about getting prepped for Game 1 and beyond with how this series might unfold.

The odds

• To win the series : Florida (-128) | Edmonton (+106)
• Total games : Over 5.5 (-188) | Under 5.5 (+152)

Likely in part thanks to having the home-ice advantage, Florida enters this one as -128 favorites to hoist the Stanley Cup, and they're -140 to win Game 1 on Saturday night.

Odds are heavily juiced towards six or seven games coming in this season, a read I'd agree with, though a -188 price does not excite me much in that market. On DraftKings, you can grab the series to go six games at +200 and seven games also at +200.

Florida's most productive players

During even-strength play

• Matthew Tkachuk: 5 goals, 8 assists, 47 shots, 4.91 expected goals (xG), 19 high-danger scoring chances (HDSC)
• Carter Verhaeghe: 5 goals, 7 assists, 40 shots, 5.06 xG, 23 HDSC
• Gustav Forsling: 4 goals, 6 assists, 42 shots, 1.43 xG, 3 HDSC
• Anton Lundell: 3 goals, 7 assists, 19 shots, 2.66 xG, 11 HDSC
• Aleksander Barkov: 4 goals, 4 assists, 36 shots, 3.64 xG, 21 HDSC
• Sam Reinhart: 4 goals, 2 assists, 45 shots, 5.77 xG, 18 HDSC

On the power play

• Aleksander Barkov: 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 shots, 1.78 xG, 7 HDSC
• Matthew Tkachuk: 6 assists, 19 shots, 3.0 xG, 13 HDSC
• Sam Reinhart: 4 goals, 1 assist, 17 shots, 4.1 xG, 16 HDSC
• Carter Verhaeghe: 4 goals, 1 assist, 22 shots, 2.49 xG, 8 HDSC
• Sam Bennett: 1 goal, 3 assists, 5 shots, 0.75 xG, 3 HDSC

What sticks out

All I see here is a loaded and diverse group all contributing for Florida. Sam Reinhart tops the team in expected goals, but players like Verhaeghe and Barkov are also finding plenty of high-danger chances.

Is Matthew Tkachuk ever going to score on the power play this postseason? As you can see, he's getting plenty of chances, and the metrics suggest he's due for some positive regression should the opportunities continue to come.

Edmonton's most productive players

During even-strength play

• Connor McDavid: 3 goals, 14 assists, 33 shots, 3.35 xG, 18 HDSC
• Evan Bouchard: 5 goals, 10 assists, 43 shots, 1.87 xG, 3 HDSC
• Leon Draisaitl: 4 goals, 10 assists, 34 shots, 3.23 xG, 15 HDSC
• Zach Hyman: 9 goals, 4 assists, 52 shots, 7.47 xG, 37 HDSC
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 2 goals, 9 assists, 14 shots, 1.74 xG, 9 HDSC

On the power play

• Leon Draisaitl: 6 goals, 8 assists, 23 shots, 3.27 xG, 5 HDSC
• Connor McDavid: 2 goals, 12 assists, 23 shots, 3.06 xG, 10 HDSC
• Evan Bouchard: 1 goal, 11 assists, 11 shots, 1.01 xG
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 4 goals, 5 assists, 7 shots, 1.6 xG, 5 HDSC
• Zach Hyman: 5 goals, 24 shots, 6.04 xG, 24 HDSC

What sticks out

There are a few quick things that stand out. First, it's the same cast of characters that has been most productive for Edmonton this postseason no matter the strength. The five you see all consist of their top power play unit, and McDavid, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and Bouchard spend the majority of their time on the ice together.

Second, Zach Hyman has logged an outrageous amount of high-quality scoring looks this postseason, which helps to explain why he has scored so many goals in these playoffs.

Then of course we see just how much success Edmonton has had on the power play. One could potentially view that as a negative. A reliance on the PP for goals can be dangerous this time of year.

Goalie averages

• Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida): 12-5, 2.2 GAA, .908 save percentage
• Stuart Skinner (Edmonton): 11-5, 2.5 GAA, .897 save percentage

Past meetings and postseason averages

How I'll be approaching this series

Overall, I am cautiously optimistic that we are set for some high-scoring games in this Stanley Cup Final. That would be wonderful to see to give us some opportunities to cash some goal parlays and point props. I likely will aim to let Game 1 unfold before I put money on that belief, as this long lay-off could yield a slower pace of play.

For the most part, I'll be favoring the home teams for both shots and points. I am very interested to see what the Connor McDavid line can get done against Aleksander Barkov's group, as the Florida captain has done a phenomenal job of quieting star players this postseason.

I'll be avoiding Edmonton's top line on Saturday until we see how these two match up, and instead favoring Florida players, such as Sam Bennett, who I have already bet to go over 2.5 SOG and to record a point.

Once the series heads to Edmonton, I'm expecting goals, as the Oilers home games this postseason have averaged 7.0 goals per game.

12 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams has gone for 6+ goals.

My betting pick to win

I think Florida has to be the play here. There are a few key factors I see as the ultimate difference in this one:

• The Panthers were here last year, experience I expect to come in handy
• I give the advantage in net to Bobrovsky and Florida over Edmonton's Skinner
• I believe the Panthers are deeper both with their forward groups and their defensemen
• The aforementioned Barkov vs. McDavid matchup, should Florida's top line continue to mitigate opposing stars. Even if they cut back on McDavid's impact by just a bit, that could ultimately be the difference

I do think we see six or more games in this series, but give me the Panthers to hoist their first ever Stanley Cup, and once again keeping the Cup out of Canada's hands.