Projecting Caleb Williams' Rookie Season, Post-Hibernation

With the Chicago Bears mandatory minicamp completed and training camp right around the corner, it's time to start familiarizing yourself with the team's roster. This year, I've chosen to break this down as individual articles for each position group. Look out for two positional previews per week, paired with podcast episodes available on Apple , Spotify , and live streamed on YouTube !

• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Offensive Line

Historical Rookie QB Production

To set a baseline for our Caleb Williams projections, we look at rookie passers over the last decade. The list includes every top-10 pick to play at least 10 games in their rookie season since 2014. The average rookie passer put up 175 passing yards per game and 1.2 touchdown passes per game.

There were six rookie quarterbacks to exceed 250 passing yards per game, and I think this should be the goal with Williams. The more I think about it, the more I realize that Williams is in the same tier as these players. Moreover, the weapons at his disposal are likely better than many comparable rookies had to work with.

It seems like there's a pretty fine line on the lower end as well. Williams needs to exceed 200 yards per game passing as a rookie. If he doesn't, he enters "bust" territory, based on historical results. While Josh Allen overcame results that pointed to being a bust, he should be considered an outlier.

Projecting Caleb Williams' Rookie Year

That brings us to the projections. I've generated nine scenarios based on the number of games played and comparables within the dataset. The first set of results is highlighted in red. These are the expectations for Caleb Williams if he falls into the "bust" territory. If Williams plays all 17 games, his season stats would total 2,984 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. Comparable players include Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Zach Wilson, and Bryce Young.

The second set of results is highlighted in yellow. These are the expectations for Williams if he falls into the mid-tier of rookie passers. Assuming that he plays all 17 games, his season stats would total 3,807 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Comparable players include Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, and Trevor Lawrence.

The third, and most optimistic, set of results is highlighted in green. These are the expectations for Williams if we expect him to be one of the best rookie quarterbacks in the last decade. Assuming that he plays all 17 games, his season stats would total 4,591 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Comparable players include Justin Herbert, CJ Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield.

Is That Realistic, Though?

I looked at the high-end projections and thought, "That can't be realistic." Over 4,500 yards for a rookie? That feels outrageous to my Chicago Bears fan brain. But the more I look at it, the more realistic I think it can be. If we're talking about a quarterback prospect in the same light as Justin Herbert, CJ Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield, shouldn't our expectations be set similarly?

I certainly think so. Caleb Williams is a true blue-chip quarterback prospect, and I refuse to be afraid to compare him to the other true blue-chip prospects we've seen in recent history. The supporting cast is there for him. I'm not sure I can say that any quarterback included above had a better supporting cast than Williams has in Chicago. If the USC product plays 15+ games, then 4,000 passing yards should be the goal.

Shane Waldron's offense allows for that type of production. We've seen Geno Smith exceed 4,000 yards in each of the last two seasons. It's NOT outrageous for a rookie QB to exceed 265 passing yards per game. Herbet, Stroud, Burrow, and Mayfield all exceeded that figure. And 265 passing yards per game totals just below 4,000 yards across 15 games played.

After all, we aren't talking about a passer who struggled to put up big passing yards or had a limited sample size in college. Between Oklahoma and USC, Williams posted 300+ passing yards in 15 of his 34 starts (44.1%). Justin Fields posted 300+ passing yards in seven of his 22 college starts (31.8%). Meanwhile, Mitchell Trubisky posted 300+ passing yards in six of his 13 college starts (46.2%). He checks both boxes as far as hitting 300+ yards at a high rate and generating a more reliable sample size.

I'm choosing to expect Caleb Williams to be great because that's what he expects of himself, and that's the company he's put himself into. That's not to say that I'll be delusional about his production, but rather to say that I'm setting the bar high for him.

Giving the range of projections allows you to make your own decisions, though. What do you think is reasonable to expect form the Bears' rookie signal-caller in 2024?

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