Ozempic —and similar GLP-1 drugs—may be the latest weight-loss wonder, but on the aggregate, Americans’ body-centric measurements have hardly budged between 2021 and 2024.
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Bold Metrics , a fit technology company based in San Francisco, conducted an analysis of more than 18 million data points—or nearly five million data points each year—to help determine whether the effects of the so-called Ozempic Economy have started to appear in a way that would be meaningful to fashion and apparel brands and retailers.
The resulting study, shared exclusively with Sourcing Journal, shows that, among both men and women in the U.S., the following measurements have not changed in any statistically significant way: mean and median weight, mean and median waist circumference, mean and median body mass index (BMI), mean and median hip circumference and waist-to-hip ratio. Several of these metrics are also used as factors to determine a person’s risk of diabetes.
That so many data points have not shown any drastic change over the course of several years could indicate that GLP-1 drugs haven’t yet begun to make an impact that retailers may consider nationally important, said Daina Burnes, CEO of Bold Metrics.
“There's just probably not enough market penetration of the Ozempic drug for there to be a statistical shift in the data that we would see in an analysis such as the one that we've done here,” Burnes said.
Bold Metrics helps consumers determine which size might fit them best as they shop online; its clients include Canada Goose , Columbia , Tailored Brands and more.
When conducting its data analysis for Sourcing Journal, the company opted not to study the percentage of recommendations by size its proprietary technology gave to consumers. That, Burnes said, is likely not an accurate metric for understanding the true potential for Ozempic’s effect on the fashion and apparel industries.
“There's so many different nomenclatures [for sizing], and of course sizes don't always line up to other sizes across brands. That's why [fit technology] companies exist in the first place, right? Because there's no sizing standardization. So you can't say all smalls in one brand are equivalent to another small in another brand,” she said.
Burnes also noted that sometimes the sizes consumers actually choose vary based on preference; the suggested size may not be what they end up buying.
A shift to wellness at play
Even if retailers start to see a change in median and mean weights among U.S.-based consumers, GLP-1 drugs may not be at the epicenter of such a shift.
Burnes said, though Bold Metrics had not yet started seeing an extraordinary change in the nationwide aggregated data, she believes other factors could have been at play if it had.
“It's unremarkable change, and that's not surprising. I was actually completely expecting that. If there was a change, and if we were seeing somewhat of a reduction in weight or [another relevant metric], I would maybe attribute it more toward some of those other, societal shifts in our active behaviors, as opposed to [a small percentage] of people being on this drug,” Burnes said.
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Jessica Ramirez, a senior research analyst for Jane Hali and Associates, said part of the reason weight loss remains top of mind is due to the success of the outdoor and athleisure sectors as Americans lean further into post-pandemic wellness.
“I think people are still a little skeptical or carry some caution around the drug,” Ramirez told Sourcing Journal. “It still needs time, I think, for it to catch on completely and consumers to feel completely safe with it. But I think layered on top of the weight-loss drug, because we're seeing so much around wellness, I think that that itself will also contribute to weight loss in a different way.”
Discretionary GLP-1 usage
Though Bold Metrics’ data shows stagnancy in consumers’ average and median measurements nationally, AI-based retail planning and forecasting company Impact Analytics put out research that showed GLP-1 drugs’ impact may be beginning to creep into some high-income areas.
Its data shows that over 40 percent of GLP-1 prescriptions in New York City are given to those who lack a Type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Nearly three-quarters of those users are female, and those taking the drug are clustered in affluent areas, like Manhattan’s Upper East Side.
According to the company, the percentage of sales of women’s button-down shirts in sizes XXS, XS and small have increased by about 12 percent between 2022 and 2024 among New York City fashion retailers on the Upper East Side. In that same time period, it said, sales of women's button-down shirts in sizes large, XL and XXL have decreased by about 11 percent.
That shift, Prashant Agrawal, Impact Analytics’ CEO said, could be attributed to GLP-1 drugs, though the company cannot say with certainty that the drugs are the only—or primary—reason for the shift.
“With the advent of GLP-1, there will be more shifts in the size curve. You're seeing some of it in New York right now, in the Upper East Side. We don't know for sure that it's GLP-1. But one can surmise given the [size] data and the uptick in GLP-1 in New York City compared to the rest of the U.S. that it is GLP-1 related,” he said. “As GLP-1 usage goes across the U.S., in areas of affluence, you will see size curves shift. That will affect different brands; that will affect everybody. It is a gradual shift over the next few years; it’s not something that’s going to happen tomorrow.”
Novo Nordisk, Ozempic’s manufacturer, prices a one-month supply of the drug at nearly $1,000 for American consumers. Those using the drug for diabetes management and prevention may not pay that out of pocket, but many using the drug exclusively for weight loss pay that premium.
On the Upper East Side, that cost may be less prohibitive than in other locations. According to NYU’s Furman Center, in 2022, the median household income on the UES came in at $148,520. That’s 92 percent higher than New York City’s at-large median household income of $77,550.
Morgan Stanley said in a May blog post that it now anticipates 9 percent of the total U.S. population—about 30 million people—could be taking Ozempic or a similar drug by 2035.
Agrawal said Impact Analytics had no further data on other high-income locales that may be seeing preliminary GLP-1-related shifts, but that he expects the Ozempic Economy will affect size curves for years to come. He recommended that, even in areas where GLP-1 has not begun to make its mark, companies monitor trends and size curves to ensure they can match consumer demand without having too much surplus inventory.
“I think that this is a canary in a coal mine; this is a low, slow boil,” he said. "This is something that we’ll see play out over the next few years.”
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