Rocket Mortgage Classic 2024: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The Rocket Mortgage Classic 2024 begins on Thursday, June 27, at Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan. This marks the sixth consecutive year in which the PGA Tour has stopped at Detroit Golf Club, as the tournament replaced the Quicken Loans National in 2019.

Designed by renowned golf architect Donald Ross, Detroit Golf Club (par 72) was established over a century ago in 1899 but underwent severe renovations in 2018 to prepare for its PGA Tour debut. The course stretches 7,370 yards and features tree-lined fairways, four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough, 87 sand bunkers, and Bentgrass/Poa Annua green complexes that are heavily undulated with front-to-back contours. But with little penalty for wayward misses, receptive fairways and green complexes, four par-5s, and five sub-400-yard par-4s, Detroit GC has seen the winning score eclipse 23-under in four of the five years here. With even more rainfall in the Detroit area early in the week, expect the course to be primed for a good ole fashion birdie fest.

After two Signature Events and a major championship over the past three weeks, the 156-player field teeing it up in Detroit this week is unsurprisingly lackluster. Only ten of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking are part of the field, headlined by Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, Akshay Bhatia, Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger, and defending champion Rickie Fowler. Notable up-and-comers Michael Thorbjornsen, Neal Shipley, Luke Clanton, Jackson Koivun, and 15-year-old Miles Russell also get to showcase their stuff in the Motor City this week.

Last time, Rickie Fowler defeated Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin in a playoff to pick up his first PGA Tour win in over four years. Fowler entered the final round with a one-shot lead and got off to a fast start with three birdies in his opening seven holes. However, Fowler hit a lul from Nos. 8 through 17, recording ten consecutive pars and falling behind by one stroke with one hole to play. The 34-year-old fan favorite stepped up to the plate and made birdie on the 72nd hole to force a playoff, and he went on to tally another birdie on the first playoff hole to snap his win drought. Perhaps the best moment of the 2023 season.

Let's get into my favorite picks this week at Detroit Golf Club!

FAVORITE OUTRIGHTS

Stephan Jaeger (+2500 FanDuel)

Jaeger hasn't put together a top-10 finish since his victory at the Houston Open in late March but does have four top-25s over his past eight outings. I believe the 35-year-old German is still in proper form to rattle off his second win of the season and has a T9 and a solo-fifth in his last two starts at Detroit Golf Club.

Following a putrid six-week stretch with his irons, Jaeger bounced back to gain 2.8 strokes with his approach shots at the U.S. Open and 3.5 strokes at the Travelers Championship. The Chattanooga, Tennessee native has been able to pop against much stronger fields than he'll face this week, and with his total-driving abilities (16th on Tour this season), he should be able to separate himself from the pack in the ball-striking departments. He's lost strokes off the tee only once in his past 13 events.

Among all players in the field, Jaeger ranks fourth in SG: Par-5s (550-600 Yards), sixth in Approach Putt Performance, tenth in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 12th in Driving Distance, and 16th in Par-4s (350-400 Yards) over the past 24 rounds. Jaeger gives himself ample birdie opportunities, particularly on shorter and easier holes, which is precisely the game plan for this week.

Not only has Jaeger gained over four strokes on approach in his two most recent trips to Detroit GC, but he's also gained over two strokes with the putter. He gained 5.1 strokes on the greens en route to his fifth-place finish here in 2022, his fifth-best SG: Putting performance of his PGA Tour career. When I correctly backed Jaeger at the Houston Open earlier in the year, he was in the midst of a putting slump like he's going through right now. However, his track record on the greens at Memorial Park were promising, just like they are this week in the Motor City. It's also worth noting that Poa Annua has been Jaeger's prefered putting surface on Tour.

With a win and two T3's on driver-heavy setups this season (Memorial Park, Torrey Pines, Vidanta Vallarta), I expect Jaeger to be in the conversation down the stretch on Sunday.

Matt Wallace (+6500 FanDuel)

Wallace has been playing splendid golf since the calendar flipped to May, as he's made five consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour, highlighted by a T4 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. The 34-year-old Englishman is also coming off a T15 last week at the KLM Open on the DP World Tour, where he gained over six strokes ball striking for the second consecutive start.

Not only has Wallace been playing consistently entering this week, but he also has a pair of top-12s in three career trips to Detroit Golf Club. Wallace popped for over 2.5 strokes in the ball-striking categories and over 2.7 strokes putting in both those finishes, showing he has the upside necessary to win a high-scoring event like this. It's also worth pointing out that his incoming form was dreadful when he came T78 here last year, where he was plagued by dropping over five strokes from off the tee.

Among all players in the field, Wallace ranks 13th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 22nd in Scrambling (will be helpful on the par-5s), and 24th in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds. However, if you shrink the sample size down to 12 rounds, he ranks 18th in SG: Approach, a result of gaining over 2.5 strokes in three of his past five outings.

Wallace's name has popped up on the leaderboard in two of the biggest birdie fests of the season (Mexico Open & CJ Cup Byron Nelson), and I don't think its a surprise that his lone PGA Tour victory came at the 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship, where the winning score reached 19-under. With his game in sturdy form and strong history on this course, I wouldn't be surprised to see the grizzled vereran in the mix for win No. 2 this week.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Erik van Rooyen (+7500 FanDuel)

EvR has an awful history at Detroit Golf Club, with painful underlying statistics and two missed cuts in as many starts. There's no denying that. However, he still ranks as the fifth-best player in the field according to my model, and 75/1 odds are large enough for me to take a chance on a setup that should suit his skillset.

Outside of woeful numbers in the Motor City, van Rooyen rates out well in essentially every other statistic I'm looking at this week. While he isn't elite in any specific metric, he's remarkably well-balanced across the board. Among all players in the field, EvR ranks 10th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 25th in SG: Putting, 25th in Proximity 200-225 Yards, 32nd in SG: Par-4s (350-400 Yards), 33rd in SG: Easy, 37th in SG: Par-5s (550-600 Yards), 39th in Driving Distance, 40th in SG: Approach, and 41st in Opportunities Gained over the past 24 rounds.

The 34-year-old South African has two career PGA Tour victories, both coming on easier setups that were high-scoring events. His first win came at the 2021 Barracuda Championship in California, an event which uses the non-typical Stableford Scoring format that rewards aggressive play and birdie making. EvR's second victory came at the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico, where he reached 27-under to win by two strokes. He also finished T4 at the Myrtle Beach Classic (22-under winning score) and T8 at the Mexico Open (19-under winning score) earlier this year.

Despite struggling mightily at Detroit GC in the past, I believe this is precisely the type of course where van Rooyen can make birdies in bunches. That's the name of the game this week, and I'm cautiously optimistic of EvR's chances.

Jake Knapp (+15000 BetRivers Enhanced)

No way to sugercoat it, Knapp has been downright awful since nearly winning for the second time during his rookie season at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in early May. The 30-year-old California native finished T58 at the Wells Fargo Championship, missed the cut at the PGA Championship, The Memorial, and the U.S. Open, and most recently finished T48 at the Travelers Championship last week. Those are his past five starts, and while there hasn't been a lot of promise, I'm absolutely willing to roll the dice at these odds on a driver-heavy golf course like Detroit GC.

Knapp was among my favorite long-shot picks when he finished T8 at TPC Craig Ranch after playing in the final pairing on Sunday, and it's because he would be able to wield his most dangerous weapon frequently. He'll be able to do the same this week in Detroit, and despite his recent struggles, the 2024 Mexico Open champion ranks 22nd in Driving Distance and 34th in Total Driving on the PGA Tour this season. Anywhere Knapp can use his driver early and often, I'm intrigued in his chances. Especially against this weak of a field.

While Knapp has dropped strokes with his irons in three consecutive starts, two of those losses have been for less than one stroke, and he still ranks fourth in Proximity from 100-125 Yards and 23rd from 200-225 Yards over the past 24 rounds. His ability to dial in the wedges and long irons is still prevalent and will do him favors with the various yardage buckets this week. Additionally, Knapp has popped for over eight strokes four times during his rookie campaign, which tells me he's capable of contending when his game is clicking.

Related: Rocket Mortgage Classic 2024: Course & Field Preview, Key Stats, + Odds

All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *

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