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MLB strikeout props for 6/28: Call him Bailey Over
By Jack Dougherty,
18 days ago
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober.
After yet another 2-1 mark in strikeout props on Thursday, we're now 9-3 on the week and well in the green. Let's finish the week off strong with another three-pack of K props for Friday's MLB slate.
We've been fading starting pitchers going up against the Cleveland Guardians for a while, and we see no reason to stop now. The Guardians have the third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB against right-handed pitching this month (17.4 percent). Alec Marsh ranks below average in every swing-and-miss metric, and he's struggled against this lineup in the past. In 27 combined plate appearances against Marsh, current Guardians hitters are batting .391 with a .461 xwOBA and a 14.8 percent K rate.
Perez is making his first start since suffering a groin injury and landing on the injured list a month ago, and we're interested in fading him in his return. The Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander ranks in the 11th percentile in whiff rate (19.6 percent) and the 21st percentile in strikeout rate (18.0 percent) this season, and he has just a 13.7 percent K rate against current Atlanta Braves hitters in his career. Perez likely won't be able to handle a full workload in his first start back, so the under is the play.
Ober is on fire with 18 strikeouts and only three earned runs over his last 15.1 innings of work. Granted, all of those innings came against the Oakland Athletics, but the Seattle Mariners are an even better matchup for Ks. The Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties over the last two weeks (30.2 percent). Seattle also has the second-lowest zone contact rate and the third-highest whiff rate this year. Ober can keep it rolling here.
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