Summer of Soccer best bets for 6/30: Lions, Falcons and the Battle of the Two 'Tri'

Brazil wound up looking pretty good for a team who doesn't like small fields, huh? Its 4-1 hammering of Paraguay threw it right back into the Copa America mix and should help it seal an advancement slot from Group D. (Shout out to all of you who took us up on that Lucas Paqueta bet yesterday. Isn't it nice to know that someone is making money betting on Paqueta beyond Paqueta's friends ? Allegedly. Of course.)

As we push into June 30, we've got four intriguing new matchups between the Euros and the Copa America. Here's what's on deck:

England vs. Slovakia, 3 p.m. ET — The Three Lions take on the Falcons in what looks to be one of the most mismatched Round of 16 matches in the tournament. England is ranked fifth in the world to Slovakia's 45th. We think England should take this one in the end, but we do expect it to struggle against this compact and organized Slovakia side. It beat Belgium for a few good reasons, after all, and only one of those was that Belgium is actually kind of embarrassing right now.

Spain vs. Georgia, 6 p.m. ET — From one mismatched game to another: on rankings alone, this is the biggest talent gap in the Round of 16. But regular viewers of this tournament know that Georgia is much, much more competitive than its 74th-in-the-world ranking suggests. Georgia is fast, aggressive, and unafraid of short passes and direct attacks. Unfortunately, it's going against a tournament powerhouse in Spain — and a team that knows just how to take advantage of teams who like to go for it.

Mexico vs. Ecuador, 8 p.m. ET — This is easily the best game of the day in our minds. Mexico's El Tri takes on Ecuador's La Tri to determine who will advance and who will go home. (Why is one tri masculine while the other is feminine? Don't they both refer to the tri-color nature of their respective flags? Spanish speakers, if you have any idea, please weigh in. It's bugged us for ages.) Ecuador is in the best position to get through here — a win or a draw will suit it just fine — but if it does, it will have to face Argentina in the Round of 16. With an opponent like that waiting in the wings, an early elimination doesn't seem so rough.

Venezuela vs. Jamaica, 8 p.m. ET — Venezuela is the surprise package of the Copa; its intelligent gameplay and breathtaking physicality has lifted it high above everyone else in Group B. We're looking forward to seeing it in the knockout rounds. Before it can get there, though, it must get through Jamaica's Reggae Boyz, who are already eliminated and simply playing for pride. Don't let that put you off this game: if the Euros are anything to go off of, Jamaica will still play this one like it means everything.

Where are the best bets in all this? We think they're here:

England passing it around the back. We don't recommend pass-based bets here too often because a team's formation (and the formation/intention of its opponent) tends to influence passing numbers far too much. But we feel pretty confident recommending that one Kyle Walker will make at least 76 passes against Slovakia at -120. Walker put up 77 passes against Denmark, 82 against Serbia and a whopping 104 against Slovenia. He's definitely good for it — and Slovakia is unlikely to challenge England's possession, giving him all the time on the ball he needs to get over the threshold.

Georgia's fighting spirit. Few expected Georgia to get out of its difficult group, but that's exactly what it did, racking up a win against tournament favorite Portugal along the way. It was rewarded for its good performance with the worst possible draw: Spain, the most complete and threatening team throughout the group stage of the competition. The odds on Georgia's advancement here are insane, and rightfully so, but Georgia is not a team that gives up when the going gets tough. It scored in every single one of its group stage matches no matter how outplayed it was. We're backing a Spain win with at least one Georgia goal at +220 .

Kendry Paez's work rate. Ecuador hasn't had the smoothest journey in this Copa, but it's been able to rely upon one thing: midfielder Kendry Paez's shots. Paez, who plays in Ecuador for Independiente Del Valle, got six off each against Venezuela and Jamaica. We're backing him to get at least one shot on target against Mexico at +137 .