The AFC East is one of the most intriguing divisions in football, projecting the 2024 season. The New England Patriots are starting a new era after Bill Belichick , but the other three teams have realistic expectations of competing for the division title — and to make a deep playoff run.
Therefore, we invited our four writers who cover the Patriots, the Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins, and the New York Jets to share their perspectives about what can happen during the season, and how it all can shake out.
*Both Bills and Dolphins writers projected the same record for them, so I broke the tie giving Miami the division title.
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AFC East 2024 Record Predictions
1. Miami Dolphins (12-5)
There's reason for both optimism and concern with the Dolphins in 2024. Some primary concerns from 2023 remain. More specifically, the team doesn't have answers for its guard positions (or at least strong answers), and its starting pass rushers are still coming back from season-ending injuries suffered late in the year. Christian Wilkins' production is going to be tough to overcome.
However, there's also plenty of reasons for optimism. The defense added some key experienced pieces in Calais Campbell, Jordan Poyer, Kendall Fuller, and Jordyn Brooks. The offense added more firepower in Jaylen Wright, Jonnu Smith, and Odell Beckham Jr. The schedule sets up for a strong first 12 weeks or so.
Oh, and those pesky Bills seem to have dropped down a peg roster-wise. The AFC East is there for the taking, and I think Miami finally gets it done, barely, at 12-5.
Craig Smith , Miami Dolphins beat writer
2. Buffalo Bills (12-5)
The Bills have gone under a lot of cosmetic changes this offseason. Gone are veterans such as Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, Micah Hyde, and Tre'Davious White on defense, and they completely flipped their wide receiver room with six new wideouts.
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis being gone will obviously be different, but Diggs didn't have a 100-yard game after week 6, and Davis had five games where he had one or zero catches. The Bills will also be getting Matt Milano back alongside Terrel Bernard, and oh yeah, that Kryptonian wearing 17 is still their quarterback. The Bills are still the best team in this division, and will remain so until proven otherwise.
Jarrett Bailey , Buffalo Bills and NFL writer
3. New York Jets (11-6)
This has to be the year, right? The Jets have been saddled with a horrific combination of bad signings, worse draft picks and down-right bad luck for so long, that at some point they have to be due for a break. Last year, they finished third in the division, but they were able to win games with almost zero offense to speak of. Now, Aaron Rodgers is back and hopefully Father Time didn't catch up to him while he was rehabbing his Achilles injury.
In order to keep Rodgers upright this season, GM Joe Douglas spent most of his offseason assets on reforming the offensive line, and he did a fantastic job of it. He signed John Simpson from the Baltimore Ravens and future Hall of Famer Tyron Smith from the Dallas Cowboys and traded for former Jet turned Raven Morgan Moses to man the right tackle spot. Joe D wasn't done there as he used the team's first-round selection on left tackle Olu Fashanu to make sure the team had the depth they were missing last year.
The Jets have one of the best young wide receivers and running backs in the game, who are just itching to realize their full potential after years of playing behind bad quarterbacks and worse offensive lines (or is it the other way around?). Now, they bring in a true threat when healthy in Mike Williams to pair with Garrett Wilson and the YAC King Malachi Corley to make Rodgers' job easier.
As far as the defense goes, it's going to be just as good as it was last year and might even get a chance to play with a lead occasionally. The Jets were able to win seven games in 2023 behind their defense and only their defense.
The Jets have the fourth easiest schedule if you go by Vegas win totals. They have several winnable games on the schedule, but are in a tough division with Bills and Dolphins. I do think both of those teams got worse this offseason, but are still good enough to win 12 games themselves. The Jets have a few 50/50 games, and the season might boil down to how they fare in those matchups, notably, the Steelers, Texans, Rams, Bills and Dolphins.
Mike Antoniou , New York Jets beat writer
4. New England Patriots (7-10)
The New England Patriots were horrible last season, and the team decided to completely regroup. Bill Belichick is gone, Mac Jones has been traded, and a new quarterback has been brought in. I don't think the Patriots will be nearly as bad as last year. However, they are still building this new era for the Patriots.
Jerod Mayo has managed to keep the strong defense together, which was a big win for the first-year head coach. And Drake Maye is already showing improvement in the short time he's been in New England. Yet, veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett is primed to start once the season begins, with Maye having the possibility of making an appearance later in the year.
Will they be a four-win team again? No. Will they be a Super Bowl contender? No. But will they show improvement? Yes. It's going to take time to get back to what fans expect of the team, but they are off to a solid start.
Sophie Weller , New England Patriots beat writer
Related: Predicting the 2024 records and end of season rankings for the AFC North
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