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13 Bold Predictions for College Football Conference Realignment, Expansion
By Steven Lassan,
14 hours ago
July 1 is officially moving day for a handful of FBS programs in college football. Although some of the recent realignment and expansion moves won't be official until August, this date marks a transition for several programs and conferences . Also, it serves notice the '24 season isn't far off.
When the dust settles in early August, college football conferences are going to look a lot different for '24 and beyond.
On July 1, Texas and Oklahoma officially join the SEC, and SMU becomes a member of the ACC. Later this summer, California and Stanford depart the Pac-12 to join the Mustangs to form a 17-member ACC.
The Big 12 expanded to 16 teams after the departure of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC, adding Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado from the Pac-12.
On August 2, Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA become members of the expanded 18-team Big Ten. With 10 teams departing, the Pac-12 will play as a two-team conference (Washington State and Oregon State) for the '24 season as it plots its future.
In the Group of 5 ranks, Army replaces SMU in the American Athletic Conference, and Kennesaw State moves from the FCS level to FBS to join Conference USA.
The Sun Belt and MAC were spared from any realignment or expansion moves in this cycle for the 2024 season. The Mountain West did not lose or gain any teams but will have a scheduling agreement with Oregon State (seven games) and Washington State (eight) this year.
What could the future of college football hold for conferences, teams, and potential realignment and expansion? Let's make some predictions (perhaps some crazy) about what could happen in the next round of movement:
13 Bold Predictions for College Football Conference Realignment, Expansion
Clemson and Florida State Leave the ACC This could come as soon as the 2024 season ends or earlier if Clemson/Florida State get a favorable ruling in the lawsuits filed against the ACC. The Tigers and Seminoles will be the first two teams to depart the ACC in favor of the Big Ten or SEC.
The Big Ten and SEC Will Covet North Carolina Although Clemson and Florida State are better teams on the gridiron, North Carolina could be the school coveted the most by the Big Ten and SEC. Not only does the state have a growing population and is a key talent area for recruiting, North Carolina would be a perfect geographic fit into the SEC map. And if the Big Ten wants to get into the South, then this state is a must with a team in Florida (and potentially Georgia).
Untangling North Carolina from NC State or Duke won't be easy. The guess here is all parties find a way to make it happen.
The SEC Expands The SEC doesn't necessarily need to expand to 18 or 20 after the addition of Oklahoma and Texas. But the league strikes a setback to the Big Ten, adding North Carolina and Virginia to grow to 18 teams.
An extra prediction: Don't rule out NC State and Kansas or Duke here to expand to 20.
The Big Ten Gets Bigger After Florida State and Clemson receive clarity on their lawsuit against the ACC, the Big Ten moves fast and adds these two programs into the conference. But that's not all: The conference also invites Georgia Tech and Miami to move to become a 22-team league.
Keep an Eye on Kansas The Jayhawks could make sense in the Big Ten or SEC. An improved football product and recent facility improvements certainly help this program's case to move from the Big 12. And if conference commissioners believe basketball will be coveted even more in the next realignment round, Kansas is positioned for a move to one of the top two conferences.
The ACC Adds Teams to Replace Departures The ACC reportedly needs to stay at 15 teams to keep its television deal intact with ESPN. If Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Miami leave, four teams - Memphis, South Florida, East Carolina, and Tulane (and maybe UTSA?) - are invited to join the ACC.
Two wild-card scenarios: UConn joins as a football-only member. And the ACC also considers Army and Navy for expansion.
However, staying at 15 teams won't be easy because...
The Big 12 Explores Expansion Since arriving on the job in 2022, commissioner Brett Yormark has been aggressive with membership and will do so again as the future of the ACC is unsettled after the departures (in this scenario) to the Big Ten and SEC.
Once the plates start shifting again in realignment, Yormark shows interest in Louisville, Virginia Tech, and NC State from the ACC and Boise State, South Florida, Tulane, Fresno State, San Diego State, UConn, and Memphis from the Group of 5 ranks for a few spots in expansion.
The Big 12 eventually grows from 16 to 20, with three of those additions - NC State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech - coming from the ACC. With the ACC falling apart, Memphis could find itself in the driver's seat for the last addition into a power conference. Or Yormark could extend an invitation to Duke or Stanford to be team No. 20 instead.
A G5 Super Conference is Floated... But ultimately fails. This could include Boise State, Memphis, Oregon State, Washington State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Tulane, UTSA, and South Florida among others. However, the logistics just don't come together.
Oregon State and Washington State Join the Mountain West/Pac-12 As mentioned above, a Group of 5 super conference is floated but ultimately fails. As a result, Oregon State and Washington State become full-time members of the Mountain West. The conference opts to rebrand as the Pac-12 (or Pac-14) as all 12 current football members of the league merge with the Beavers and Cougars.
The MAC Becomes a 14-Team League UMass will join the MAC next year (2025) to bring the MAC membership to 13 teams. Even if the conference prefers all-sports members, the MAC eventually grows by one with a football-only deal with UConn.
And if UConn isn't the right fit, perhaps a FCS team (maybe Illinois State?) fits as the No. 14 member.
Sun Belt Grows to 16 Teams Some hard feelings persist over Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee previously leaving the Sun Belt for Conference USA. However, the Sun Belt decides to grow by two, inviting the Blue Raiders and Hilltoppers back into the conference.
The Sun Belt still opts to maintain divisions in this scenario, placing Middle Tennessee in the West and Western Kentucky in the East.
Conference USA Considers More Expansion The long-term health of Conference USA was significantly in peril after the departure of Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss to the Sun Belt, along with Charlotte, UTSA, FAU, North Texas, Rice, and UAB. However, the conference survived and plans to add Delaware and Missouri State in time for the '25 season.
In this scenario, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky leave for the Sun Belt, dropping the membership back to 10 teams. CUSA explores more additions from the FCS level - potentially Eastern Kentucky, Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, and Stephen F. Austin - but ultimately remains at 10 teams.
Notre Dame Won't Join a Conference All of the movement among conferences will cause some headaches and consideration in South Bend. But when the dust settles, Notre Dame will keep its Independence.
However, the ACC departures force Notre Dame to reconsider or abandon its long-term scheduling agreement with the conference. The Fighting Irish explore a new agreement with the Big 12, Big Ten, or SEC.
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