Golf best bets: Dougherty's outright picks for the John Deere Classic

After losing our Tom Kim bet in a playoff at the Travelers Championship, we followed it up with another second-place finish on Min Woo Lee at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Outright golf betting can be a grind, but we're so close to kicking the door down and cashing one of these suckers.

Let's do just that with our three outright picks for this week's John Deere Classic.

Denny McCarthy (+2200 FanDuel )

It's shocking to see Denny McCarthy priced at 22/1 to win a PGA Tour event, but that's just how weak the field is this week. Even though this is a reduced price on a player who's never won on Tour before, McCarthy is still our favorite bet near the top of the board.

The John Deere Classic is a stereotypical putting contest due to how easy TPC Deere Run plays for these guys. Seven of the top eight players in strokes gained from putting during the week finished inside the top 10 last year. There aren't many people on this planet we trust with a putter in their hands more than McCarthy. The American ranks first on Tour this season in putts per round, first in one-putt percentage, first in total putting and second in strokes gained from putting. He's also finished T6 in back-to-back starts at TPC Deere Run.

The elusive first win is coming eventually for McCarthy, and this week might be the best chance he gets.

Jason Day (+3500 DraftKings )

Day has been struggling with his ball striking all season. The Australian has lost strokes on approach in eight of his last 11 starts, which is why he has only two top-20 finishes since February. Most golf courses on the PGA Tour demand precise iron play, but you can get away with a mediocre approach game at TPC Deere Run.

The good news for Day is that his putter is on fire. The veteran has gained strokes on the green in 11 straight starts. He ranks sixth this season in putts per round, fifth in one-putt percentage and 11th in putting from 10-15 feet, which should be a popular distance for birdie putts this week. Day hasn't played here since 2011, but he's never missed a cut at TPC Deere Run and has two top-15 finishes in his last three starts. In a terrible field with few proven winners, we'll gladly take the 13-time winner and major champion at 35/1.

Adam Schenk (+7000 FD )

Schenk is lost on the golf course right now. There's no way to sugarcoat it. The American has missed four cuts in his last seven starts and hasn't finished better than T55 in that span. He's also lost strokes from putting in five straight starts and on approach in six of his last seven.

It's not going well for Schenk right now, but maybe a return to TPC Deere Run is exactly what he needs to get back on track.

Schenk has finished T6, T4 and T4 in his last three official starts at the John Deere Classic (he withdrew after one round in 2022). He's gained a combined 11.76 true strokes from putting over those three starts, so he clearly loves these greens. Considering he grew up in Indiana and played similar Midwest courses his whole life, that's no surprise.