Fourth of July storms could bring big rain totals to Minnesota

"There will be some breaks in the rain, especially Thursday morning, but plan on a wet 4th of July & alter outdoor events accordingly." That's the word from the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities ahead of the 248th anniversary of the birth of America's independence.

"Multiple rounds of thunderstorms & locally heavy rainfall are expected Thursday into Friday. Most areas are expected to see 1-2" of rain but locally higher amounts of 3-4" are possible," the NWS Twin Cities said.

The anticipated rainfall map from the NWS shows the bullseye for the highest totals across the southern third of the state, including the Twin Cities, Mankato and Rochester.

Storms could reach severe levels later in the day Thursday, though it might be cloudy all day long and if that's the case there won't be as much heating and the airmass won't be unstable to the point for numerous severe storms. Non-supercell tornadoes could drop, though the Storm Prediction Center says the better chance for those are in Iowa.

Here's how the morning updated HRRR model sees things playing out from 3 a.m.-midnight Thursday.

Here's how the NAM 3km model shows things unfolding from 5 a.m .Thursday to 1 p.m. Friday.

If the NAM 3km solution is accurate, it could mean some big-time rain totals near the metro. The model run from above drops 4-5 inches of rain right over the Twin Cities. Will it happen? That's to be determined...