Where and when to expect thunderstorms – some severe – today in Minnesota

The Fourth of July in northern Minnesota looks pretty good in terms of the weather, but across southern Minnesota there will be thunderstorms to contend with.

In the Twin Cities, rain early Thursday morning should clear out for a brief dry spell before storms redevelop in the middle of the day. Some of those storms, especially across south-central and southeastern Minnesota, could pack a punch.

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"Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as midday," the Storm Prediction Center says for southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. "Some of this convection will become supercells, capable of large hail and damaging gusts, with clustering or line segments also possible."

The HRRR model, which is shown below from 10 a.m. Thursday to noon Friday, shows a lull until storms redevelop around 2-3 p.m. If you're going to the Twins-Tigers game at 12 p.m. at Target Field, you might get lucky and avoid most of the rain. But good luck with any outdoor plans later in the day and tonight.

The Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service is anticipating widespread rain totals of 1-2 inches, with up to 3-4 inches possible in isolated locations. "Additionally, the strongest storms this afternoon could produce a few tornadoes across southern MN," the weather service said.

The NAM 3km model is fairly similar to the HRRR model shown above in that it has storms popping off midday, but it also suggests that things could dry out in the Twin Cities and surrounding areas after 6 p.m.

Either way, watch out for thunderstorms on this Fourth of July.