COVID rising again in NY as new variants spread. How bad will it get?

An uptick in COVID-19 patients at New York hospitals suggests this summer wave of infections could be nastier than last year as new variants spread nationally.

Emergency room visits for COVID-19 averaged 181 per week as of late June, with a total of about 750 COVID patients hospitalized, the most recent statewide date show. By contrast, those key COVID hospital metrics stood at 80 visits and 410 hospitalized at the time last summer.

Wastewater surveillance also identified high detections of COVID in parts of Monroe, Westchester and Rockland counties, underscoring the virus' spread in those communities. But those levels remained below the highest possible detections ‒ mostly in parts of Buffalo, New York City and Long Island.

Which COVID variants are spreading in NY?

Cases are driven by consistent upticks in a collection of sub-variants known as FLiRT, named for the mutations’ technical names. FLiRT derives from the JN.1 variant, descended from omicron, which dominated cases until the spring, according to the CDC’s Nowcast loose estimates of circulating variants.

The top subvariants spreading last month in New York included KP (40%) and JN.1 (22%), state data show, but the fastest-growing variant nationally, LB.1, has begun to show up in wastewater in New York, suggesting the potential for additional infections.

How this summer COVID uptick compares to prior NY waves

While outpacing last summer, the current uptick in COVID-19 infections remains below the summer levels earlier in the pandemic, with the worst summer peak in 2022 at nearly 2,800 COVID-19 patients hospitalized, state data show.

Further, experts noted the seasonal ebbs and flows of COVID cases — with much higher spread during fall and winter months — underscored the fact the virus is here to stay as it becomes endemic, similar to the seasonal flu, which causes up to 51,000 deaths per year nationally.

Should I still isolate for COVID in 2024?

New Yorkers should stay home and away from others until at least 24 hours after there is no fever and their symptoms are getting better overall, according to the updated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations.

That changed from the previous guidance, which recommended a minimum isolation period of five days for COVID-19.

Eduardo Cuevas and Emily DeLetter of USA TODAY contributed reporting.