Beryl’s remnants to bring heavy rain, gusty winds to the Miami Valley

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl are set to impact the Miami Valley late Tuesday through Wednesday bringing showers, occasional gusty winds, and a low-end tornado risk.

Beryl looks like it will hold together as it transitions to a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday.

>>RELATED: Beryl unleashes high winds, heavy rains in Texas, stranding residents and leaving 2M without power

The expected track of the surface low takes it through Indiana, west of the Miami Valley. This will place the Miami Valley on the “dirty” side of the system.

This side is more likely to produce rain showers, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes.

TIMING :

Late Tuesday evening through Wednesday is when we’ll have the greatest chance of rain showers and gusty winds associated with Beryl.

We could have some showers before Tuesday evening for sure, but the most widespread activity arrives late in the day Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

RAINFALL:

Showers are possible at any time Tuesday, but become more numerous and heavier overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

Rainfall totals won’t be overly impressive due to the quick-moving nature of this system. Generally expect below 1.5″ through Wednesday.

An isolated spot could pick up more. This should be beneficial given the lingering drought conditions, and low probability of flooding.

WINDS :

Significant wind impacts are not likely from this system. On Tuesday, most gusts will remain below 20-25MPH. We may see a few gusts in the 30-35MPH range on Wednesday, but again most are below that. Winds in these ranges are fairly typical for SW Ohio.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE:

Almost every tropical system carries with it an isolated tornado risk on the right side of the circulation. Beryl is no different, and as it passes by we’ll have the chance for a brief, isolated tornado or two. The greatest risk for this looks to be late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

HOW BERYL COMPARES TO HURRICANE IKE:

Ike was a generational event that is unlikely to repeat itself anytime soon. The combination of warm, dry air aloft, sunshine, and a strong low-level jet produced the unique phenomena of hurricane-force winds near the surface this far inland. The current forecast does not call for that type of setup. It appears unlikely for wind gusts to exceed 35MPH.