The 2024 Genesis Scottish Open begins on Thursday, July 11, at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Serving as the final tune-up opportunity ahead of the 152nd Open Championship, the tournament is co-sanctioned between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour for the third consecutive year.
The Renaissance Club (par 70), designed by renowned modern-day architect Tom Doak, opened in 2008 and has been the site of the Scottish Open since 2019. The course isn't necessarily a "true links golf" test, but Mother Nature fully dictates how difficult the track plays, like many of the top courses in Europe. The Renaissance Club stretches 7,237 yards and features three-to-five-inch fairway rough, 83 devilish pot bunkers, unpredictable terrain, drastic slopes, a gnarly seaside breeze, and Fescue green complexes. While the winning score has reached 15-under in three of the past five years, the other two tournament editions had a champion with a score below 12-under. It all depends on the weather.
With most of the PGA Tour's biggest stars already having voyaged across the Atlantic Ocean in preparation for the season's final major championship, a spectacular 156-player field is on tap this week in North Berwick. 2023 winner Xander Schauffele, defending champion Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Tommy Fleetwood headline the field. Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Min Woo Lee, Brian Harman, and Wyndham Clark are other notables teeing it up in Scotland.
Last time, McIlroy put together a spectacular birdie-birdie finish to snatch the trophy out of Robert MacIntyre's hands. MacIntyre hit a tremendous shot into the 18th green to record one final birdie en route to 6-under 64 for the day to take the solo lead at 14-under. However, McIlroy found a way to bounce back after tallying four bogeys on the front nine, making four birdies over the final nine holes. The four-time major champion called his 2-iron from over 200 yards out into the 18th one of the best shots of his career, and he rolled in the 10-footer to win by one stroke over the Scotland native.
Let's get into my favorite picks this week in Scotland!
FAVORITE OUTRIGHTS
Tom Kim (+2800 FanDuel)
Kim nearly picked up his fourth PGA Tour win at the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago, impressively going toe-to-toe with the Boogeyman aka Scottie Scheffler on Sunday before losing out in a playoff. While the 22-year-old South Korean missed the cut in his last time out at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, that came on the back end of nine consecutive weeks on the course, and I believe a much-needed rest will get Kim back on track.
Before his breakthrough moment on the PGA Tour at the Wyndham Championship, the Genesis Scottish Open is actually where Kim made his first notable impression on the professional golf scene. As a newly-turned 20-year-old, Kim battled with Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, and Xander Schauffele over the weekend on his way to a 3rd place finish. The 2022 Presidents Cup Star returned to The Renaissance Club last year and contended for the title again, finishing T6. It's worth noting Kim has gained at least three strokes with his irons and three strokes with the putter in each of his two appearances here.
Not only does Kim have a spectacular history on this course, but he also rates out as the sixth-best player in the field according to my model, thanks to his splendid form entering this week. Among all players in the field, Kim ranks third in Scrambling, eighth in Opportunities Gained, ninth in Weighted SG: Tee To Green, 11th in SG: Off The Tee, 12th in SG: Par-4s (450-500 Yards), 15th in Total Driving, 22nd in Proximity 200-225 Yards, and 24th in Birdie Or Better Percentage over the past 24 rounds. While he ranks 33rd in SG: Approach over the past 12 rounds, that's mostly a result of dropping over two strokes in Detroit. Throw that to the side, and Kim's gained over four strokes with his irons in three of his past four outings.
Tom has historically performed well on the same type of setups so far in his young professional career, with that being shorter courses where his lack of distance won't penalize him drastically. That's precisely what he'll get this week in Scotland, and it's not surprising to see a pair of top-10s on his resume at this track. It's also worth noting Kim had numerous top-20s on the DP World Tour before coming over to the PGA Tour full-time in 2023, telling me he's more than comfortable with this style of golf. There's just too much working in Tom's favor this week. I'm all in.
Justin Thomas (+4500 BetRivers Enhanced)
JT's quest for his first victory since the 2022 PGA Championship has extended well over two years now, and despite still looking lost at times in major championships (he missed the cut at the Masters & U.S. Open), I believe he's closer than people think to winning again.
Throwing out those missed cuts at Augusta and Pinehurst, Thomas' worst finish since the beginning of April is a T33 at The Memorial. The two-time major winner posted top-10s at the RBC Heritage, the PGA Championship, and the Travelers Championship, while also finishing T21 at the Wells Fargo. The tee-to-green dominance has finally returned, as he's gained over three strokes in that category in seven of his past ten outings. Not only has the ball striking been spectacular, but he's also gained strokes around the green in eight straight starts.
Among all players in the field, Thomas ranks fifth in SG: Around The Green, seventh in SG: Par-5s, eighth in Weighted SG: Tee To Green, ninth in Par-5s (550-600 Yards), 10th in Driving Distance, 11th in Scrambling, 15th in Par-4s (450-500 Yards), 19th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 23rd in Opportunities Gained over the past 24 rounds. While he's 64th in SG: Approach over the past 12 rounds, those numbers are skewed because he dropped over five strokes in that category at the U.S. Open. That's the only time JT lost strokes with his irons in his last six appearances, and he popped for over 3.5 strokes three times during that stretch.
While Thomas has underwhelmed at The Renaissance Club since the event became co-sanctioned with the DP World Tour, he finished inside the top 10 on this course in both 2019 and 2021. The 31-year-old Louisville native gained nearly 10 strokes to the field en route to a T8 result in 2021, showing there is upside for his skillset here in Scotland. I've yet to place a bet on Thomas during the 2024 season, but I feel this is the perfect time to roll him out on my card.
LONG SHOT PICKS
Corey Conners (+6600 BetRivers Enhanced)
Conners has put together another magnificently consistent campaign, as he's yet to miss a cut with nine top-25s in 18 starts. The 32-year-old Canadian has (literally) gained strokes in the ball-striking categories in all 18 appearances, and he's started to show signs of an improved short game since the beginning of June.
After gaining strokes in the short-game categories just once in his first 14 events of the year, Conners has now accomplished that feat in four consecutive tournaments. Most of the credit should go to his improvements around the green, as he's gained over two strokes in his last three times out. The putter can still be inconsistent, but he's shown there's enough upside to contend against the best players in the world. Conners' last two gains on the greens have been for 6.9 strokes (Canadian Open) and 3.5 strokes (U.S. Open). It's also worth noting Conners has gained strokes with the putter in his last two trips to The Renaissance Club.
Despite holding 66/1 odds, Conners rates out as the 11th-best player in the field this week, according to my model. The two-time PGA Tour winner ranks fourth in Weighted SG: Tee To Green, sixth in Opportunities Gained, seventh in Proximity 200-225 Yards, 10th in Birdie Or Better Percentage, 10th in Total Driving, 12th in SG: Approach, 21st in Par-3s (175-200 Yards), and 25th in Par-4s (450-550 Yards) over the past 24 rounds.
With an improved short game, elite ball-striking abilities, and a solid track record on the greens here in Scotland, I'm willing to take a chance on my guy Conners for the first time in a while. Plus, with the temperatures expected to be on the frigid side throughout the tournament, I know the Canadian has loads of experience playing in that type of forecast.
Bernd Wiesberger (+15000 FanDuel)
Wiesberger not only won at The Renaissance Club back in 2019, he's now rattled off six top-25 finishes in his last seven outings on the DP World Tour. According to Rick Run Good, the 38-year-old veteran has the fourth-best adjusted course fit among all players in the field this week, and 150/1 odds were more than large enough for me to jump aboard the 'Bernd Bandwagon'.
While the DP World Tour undoubtedly doesn't possess the same field strength as the PGA Tour, Wiesberger's ability to separate himself from the pack with his irons is remarkable, regardless of where he's playing. The Oberwart, Austria native has popped for over five strokes on his approach shots in four of his last five starts, making him the best player in the field in that category over the past 36 rounds.
It's also worth noting that the ball-striking isn't solely carrying Wiesberger to these high-end results -- his short game has been spectacular, too. The putter can still be hit or miss, but he's gained strokes around the greens in every measured tournament in 2024. Wiesberger has gained over two strokes in the short-game categories in three of his past five events.
With impeccable ball-striking numbers and impressively consistent around-the-green play so far this season, it feels like I'm getting 150/1 odds for Wiesberger to putt well enough to win this bad boy. I'll take that every day of the week on this type of setup.
All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *
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