Predicting Every Round Of The Home Run Derby

The MLB All-Star break has finally arrived and so has the Home Run Derby which will take place at 8 p.m. EST on Monday, July 15.

Home Run Derby

Format

Eight batters face off against each other in Round 1. The four batters with the most home runs move onto the “Knockout Stage.” Seeding will be based on how many homers each batter hit in Round 1 (1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3)—the winners in each matchup square off for the title.

Rules

Round 1 and Round 2: Three minutes or 40 pitches

Round 3: Two minutes or 27 pitches

Bonuses: Bonus pitches until the batters get three outs. Additional out granted if a batter hits a home run over 425 feet.

Batters

Odds from ESPN Bet

Gunnar Henderson (+550):  .288 BAA, 27 Home Runs , 61 RBIs

Marcell Ozuna (+425): .301 BAA, 26 Home Runs , 77 RBIs

Jose Ramirez (+1200): .272 BAA, 23 Home Runs , 77 RBIs

Teoscar Hernandez (+1000): .258 BAA, 19 Home Runs , 61 RBIs

Pete Alonso (+300): .241 BAA, 18 Home Runs , 49 RBIs

Adolis Garcia (+350): .216 BAA, 17 Home Runs , 45 RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr (+600): .327 BAA, 16 Home Runs , 63 RBIs

Alec Bohm (+1600): .292 BAA, 11 Home Runs , 70 RBIs

Predictions

Round 1

1. Marcell Ozuna

2. Pete Alonso

3. Gunnar Henderson

4. Jose Ramirez

e :   Adolis Garcia

e: Bobby Witt Jr

e: Teoscar Hernandez

e :   Alec Bohm

Round 2

Marcell Ozuna (1) vs Jose Ramirez (4)

Winner: Marcell Ozuna

Pete Alonso (2) vs Gunnar Henderson (3)

Winner: Pete Alonso

Round 3

Marcell Ozuna (1) vs Pete Alonso (2)

Winner: Pete Alonso

Other Predictions

Longest Home Run: Marcell Ozuna

Hardest Hit Home Run: Bobby Witt Jr

Pete Alonso will claim his third Home Run Derby title (2019 & 2021) in his fifth appearance. Despite having the fifth most homers between the contestants in the event, Alonso is the odds favorite at +300. Going chalk and picking the favorite is never fun, but Alonso is always all business during this event and has the most experience, giving him a clear edge.

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