When Iowa’s extreme heat will give way to severe storms Monday

IOWA — A deep ridge of high pressure and hot temperatures has been firmly in place over the Central US and here in Iowa. As the ridge sinks further south today and tonight, storm chances will increase for Iowa as storms move along the top of that ridge and across our state. This weather pattern setup can lead to a complex of storms that can produce dangerous winds over an extended distance. Damaging wind will be our primary concern with storms that form.

One More Day of Heat

Today will be the last day of heat. A Heat Advisory will be in place from 1 to 8 PM as temperatures will again rise to the 90s and heat index values get just over 100 through the afternoon. This building heat is helping to be the storm energy that will lead to storm development over the top of the ridge.

Storms with High Winds

The next threat will be the potential for storms later today. A complex of storms moving into Northeast Iowa early Monday will continue to weaken, leaving outflow boundaries that will help fuel the development of storms in far north central Iowa mid to late afternoon and the edge of the hottest air where the atmospheric cap is weakest.

As the cold front pushes into the ridge and into Central Iowa, this will allow the storms to intensify and move in a southeast direction. Wind shear will intensify along this boundary through the late afternoon helping to strengthen the storms. The likelihood of strongest winds will be as storms move south of Highway 20 and east of I-35.

A few storms with severe potential will brush through the Des Moines Metro between 5 and 7 PM.

The storms are expected to travel a far distance into the night across Eastern Iowa, Central Illinois and Indiana and could produce damaging winds all along the path. The area of Enhanced Risk from the SPC is where the likelihood of these conditions is highest.

While all modes of severe weather are possible, the wind threat is the highest in this weather pattern.

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