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2024 British Open odds, picks: Five sleepers who could surprise by winning at Royal Troon
By Patrick McDonald,
21 hours ago
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Brian Harman entered last year's Open Championship at Royal Liverpool far from the minds of bettors everywhere. Listed at 175-1 when the week began, the American bulldog blitzed the field at Hoylake to capture the Claret Jug. Harman's ascension to the winner's circle is not unusual in this championship and hardly unusual at this year's host golf course, Royal Troon.
While Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson dueled as top-20 players in the world last time The Open Championship was held at Troon in 2016, Todd Hamilton was the definition of an outsider in 2004. Listed at 500-1 by oddsmakers, the 38-year-old rookie defeated then three-time major champion Ernie Els in extra holes to score the biggest victory of his career.
Will 2024 produce another Hamilton? It seems unlikely on the surface given the reign of Scottie Scheffler and the quality of the top players like PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele and U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau. However, if you look closer at those leaderboards, you see plenty of forgotten names who ultimately contended
Collin Morikawa at the Masters, Viktor Hovland at the PGA Championship and Patrick Cantlay at U.S. Open were all listed north of 50-1. It wasn't Rory McIlroy but rather Matthieu Pavon who stood alongside DeChambeau the final day at Pinehurst No. 2. Longshots have made a habit of contending at majors in 2024, and The Open could be their time to finally breakthrough.
2024 Open Championship predictions: Sleepers
1
This price is shocking. Finau arrives at The Open having connected on five straight top 20s and three straight top 10s including runs at the U.S. Open and the Travelers Championship. The uptick in his quality can be credited to his improvement around the green and with the putter in hand as he remains ultra reliable in the ball-striking department. Before last year's early exit at Hoylake, Finau started his Open career with six straight top-30 finishes including a third-place result at a wet and windy Royal Portrush in 2019. Odds: 50-1
2
Perhaps his run at the U.S. Open was just the beginning. The knock on Cantlay the last half decade has been his inability to play himself into major championships. Well, he did just that at Pinehurst No. 2 and nearly came away with the victory. A disappointing start to his 2024 has since been met with back-to-back top fives where the well-rounded nature of his game has shined. The former FedEx Cup champion has a pair of top 15s in his Open career, including a T8 at St. Andrews in 2022. Odds: 50-1
3
We are approaching put-up-or-shut-up time for Niemann in major championships. While his play on LIV Golf has inspired confidence with two wins this season and back-to-back top-six finishes, his play in majors has not. In 21 such appearances, the young Chilean has zero top 10s with his best effort being a T16 at the 2023 Masters. While his Open résumé is lacking (zero top 50s in four tries), his game is well-suited for the test and his quality his too high for his major slump to continue much longer. Odds: 66-1
4
Hear me out. Is the form great? No. Is the missed cut at the Scottish Open inspiring? Absolutely not. However, at this price and with Spieth's Open pedigree, it may still be worth the risk. The 2017 champion has made all 10 cuts in his Open career, including six straight top-25 finishes. Spieth is driving the ball well, flashed some quality iron play over the last month and is starting to hole some more putts. It's a big ask, but Spieth has done this thing before where he looks completely lost and then contends in a major. Odds: 80-1
5
Oosthuizen will be making his first major start of the season after turning down an invitation into the PGA Championship and choosing not to qualify for the U.S. Open. The South African has been stellar on LIV Golf with a handful of top fives and enters this week very much as a forgotten man. The 2010 champion has connected on four top 30s in his last five Opens including a podium finish in 2021. Odds: 110-1
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