Where there is smoke there is fire, right? That’s usually the case. And there is a ton of smoke surrounding the New York Jets and Davante Adams. But how much of the smoke is caused by a fire and how much is just some players and media blowing stuff in the air?
The rumor of Adams landing in New York has been flying since Aaron Rodgers joined the Jets. The idea is the former dynamic duo would immediately pick up where they left, considering Adams led the NFL in receptions (432), yards (5,310), and receiving touchdowns (47) from 2018-2021.
But could Joe Douglas and the Jets really bring Adams over from the Raiders for a playoff (and hopefully Super Bowl) run?
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Adams has been frustrated, for the most part, since joining the Las Vegas Raiders. We saw just how frustrated on the Netflix docuseries “Receiver”.
It's important to note that since that frustration, things have gotten better for Adams in Sin City. The Raiders benched and eventually released Jimmy Garoppolo, as well as parting ways with head coach Josh McDaniels in favor of player favorite Antonio Pierce.
So, if you wanted to believe that Adams wanted out of Las Vegas, there is some evidence to that. What about the other side of the coin? Would the Jets want him?
Rodgers and Adams were teammates for eight years in Green Bay, becoming one of the best duos in modern history. Rodgers was playing at the American Century Championships in Lake Tahoe earlier this week when he appeared to reveal he will be playing with one of the best wide receivers he's ever played with again. "I love Davante. Can’t wait to play with him," Rodgers said, adding "again" after a slight pause. Adams later said Rodgers is "in [his] ear" about a reunion.
Then, Jets running back Breece Hall stoked the fire when talking to Kay Adams on “Up and Adams”
For those of you who have read my stuff here, first off, thank you. Secondly, I would hope by now you realize I am not one to over-sensationalize or over-react. I don’t think the league is out to get the Jets nor do I think that everything that goes wrong for the Jets is a result of them simply being “the Jets”. I don’t think Aaron Rodgers is the monster some claim him to be , while I also think he is a weird dude. I don’t believe that every player has dreams of playing with the Jets nor do I think every player wants to avoid the team like some in the media have suggested.
All of this is to say that I consider myself to be a level-headed guy who looks at logic more than anything else. That being the case, I just can’t see a scenario where the Jets pull this trade off, especially for 2024.
For starters, the Jets currently have just over $6.25 million in cap space. Adams current deal has a cap hit of $25.35 million in 2024, but the Jets would only take on his $16.890 million base salary in 2024. That's because the remaining amount is a prorated signing bonus that the Raiders have already paid out - that wouldn't travel with Adams in a trade. Still, that's more than a $10 million difference to make up.
Then, Adams' base salaries explode to more than $35 million in 2025 and $36 million in 2026. The clear route, here is to restructure the deal by adding void years that alleviate the salary, to an extent. Still, that takes a good deal of planning and the bill will eventually come due. Adams is currently 32 and although he's still playing well, he's not in his prime.
Secondly, what could they possibly trade to the Raiders to make it worth it for them? It would have to be a second-rounder, one would think. The problem is the Jets have some glaring holes on the roster, including the future at quarterback, so I doubt Joe Douglas is the type of GM to give up the team’s future for an older and very expensive receiver. I doubt the Raiders would let him go for nothing just so he can play with his bestie again.
The biggest factor, though, is fit. Garrett Wilson is a true number one receiver. Mike Williams is a fantastic number two and borderline number one guy when healthy - he also plays on the perimeter, mostly. New York signed Allen Lazard, who never got to play with Rodgers last year, and they drafted Malachi Corley in the third round. Adams is a dominant receiver, but I’m not sure the move makes sense except to win some headlines. Williams' injury history would be the most logical reasoning behind the move, but who wants a $16+ million injury policy on their team?
Lastly, does Adams really want out of Las Vegas to go play in New York? I don’t think so. The clip above was taken during the height of frustration and most of the issues he had (Jimmy G, McDaniels) are gone. I think Gardner Minshew wins the job in Vegas and I think he is good enough to keep Adams happy.
The Jets and the media can talk all they want about a Rodgers, Adams reunion, but in the end, I just don’t see how it makes sense on either side.
Related: Putting a nail in the coffin of all the dumb Jets' Aaron Rodgers minicamp narratives
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