Thunderous Tuesday: Arizona faces monsoon fury with hail, strong winds, and flooding

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Tuesday, July 16, 2024, more isolated to scattered thunderstorms will impact the state. The intensity will likely bring severe weather with strong convective gusts, hail potential, and localized flooding, particularly in Southern Arizona.

Model data for thunderstorms on Tuesday 15 Jul 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

Expect more widespread thunderstorms throughout the state on Tuesday. The monsoon pattern is in full force with the upper high producing difluence and exhaust for the developing storms. Low-level moisture is coming in from the Gulf of California, and there is significant instability in the atmosphere. After 12 pm, the Mogollon Rim for Gila, Yavapai, Southern Coconino, Navajo, and Apache Counties will have the first start of the convective activity. After 2 pm, Southern Arizona for Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Graham Counties will fire up as well. These storms will develop and push across into Pima County due to the mid-level steering flow and the Tucson area later in the afternoon hours. It is also possible to push into Pinal County by late afternoon.

These storms are primed to have associated strong convective gusts greater than 60 mph, up to one-inch hail, and localized flooding, particularly in Southern Arizona. There is also the chance of warning-level thunderstorms on the Mogollon Rim as well. Expect the stronger storms later in the afternoon into the early evening hours.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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