Unsolved MLB mysteries as trade deadline approaches

ARLINGTON, Texas — The first half officially closed Tuesday night with the All-Star Game, but with way more than half a season completed.

No team had played fewer than 95 games and, in all, an MLB-record 1,449 games and 59.6 percent of its schedule had been exhausted prior to the Midsummer Classic (thanks to MLB Network research). Yet, even with that much season played, there remains so much mystery about a trade deadline two weeks away, including:

1. Is Mason Miller available? It feels like no player should be more so.

The A’s are unlikely to play a meaningful game until they get to Las Vegas, no earlier than 2028. That is hundreds of appearances from now for a bad team. And the risk of staying healthy for that period for a guy who throws the hardest average fastball in the majors (100.9 mph) and had shoulder and elbow issues over the past two seasons seems red-line high.

Miller has five years of control and is the kind of end-game piece that every contender would see meaningfully upgrading championship odds. Thus, the A’s could theoretically return a haul.

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Conversely, as heated as buying teams would be to add Miller’s heat — his 46.7 strikeout percentage is not only first, but second is in the distance: Josh Hader at 40.4 — there must be concern by any acquiring team of giving up that haul and having Miller blow out quickly.

Oakland manager Mark Kotsay, an AL All-Star coach, said, “I don’t [think Miller will be traded]. For us, where we’re trying to go, what we’re trying to do, to build something from within, he is a big part of that development. I can’t say 100 percent because I don’t make those decisions. But when I look at him, I see part of our nucleus.”

Except having an elite closer on the AL’s second-worst team with no hope of being much better soon is akin to spritzing perfume in a sewer. How big a difference is there between winning 62 or 67 games due to a strong closer? Does trading Miller and also his fine setup man Lucas Erceg at a moment when the market is hungering for these types actually put the A’s closer to winning than keeping them?

Of course, that would mean getting the trades right, and as even Kotsay noted, the A’s traded a haul in recent years, including Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy and Matt Olson, and, “How many of the pieces that were prospects [obtained in return] have developed to become impact adds, how many were successful?”

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The answer is not many (any?). Does that make the A’s gun shy and hold onto Miller believing there will be other times — in the offseason, next trade deadline, etc. — to move him? Do they put such a price on him as to make it nearly impossible to move? Or do they believe now is the moment of his greatest value and get a bidding war going?

“There’s always the possibility — it can’t be ruled out,” Miller said. “If somebody comes with something they can’t refuse, I’m sure that they would do it. But I also think they see and appreciate the value that I’m bringing in my role this year.”

2. Are the defending champions buyers or sellers? The Rangers won seven of nine going into the break, including a key two of three at Houston. Still, they were just 46-50, five games out of first. GM Chris Young said he is prepping for both scenarios, but, “We are going to do everything we can to win this year.”

Young said he “wants to take as much time as possible to make a choice and hope in the next week [the results] make it clear we are buyers.” If they are sellers, they have seven walk-year arms in Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Max Scherzer, Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, Kirby Yates and Michael Lorenzen, plus Jon Gray with one year left — so they can be a pitching clearinghouse in the coming weeks while also seeing if they can get a big price on right fielder Adolis Garcia and first baseman Nate Lowe.

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But the Rangers have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule via Tankathon and believe they will get third baseman Josh Jung back by Aug. 1, left fielder Evan Carter and starter Tyler Mahle not long after and Jacob deGrom perhaps before Sept. 1. DeGrom, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, is throwing three 30-pitch bullpens a week, and Young said, “He looks as good as I’ve seen him. I’m excited about it. The velo has been there, the command has been on point and the action on the changeup has been terrific and he is starting to spin it now.”

3. What is Garrett Crochet? The White Sox are open to trading the All-Star lefty. But this is what one pitching-needy executive said: “How many innings does he have left this year and how do you get to them — starting, relieving, both and then, if you are lucky, how do you get through October? He’s valuable, but how valuable for the rest of this year, which is key?”

Crochet, mostly due to injury, had thrown 73 professional innings from 2020-23. He was at 107 ¹/₃ this year with an MLB-best 35.2 strikeout percentage among qualified starters. This is somewhat similar to what the Yankees are thinking about with Luis Gil, who missed most of the past two seasons and was at 102 ¹/₃ innings. At some point, may both have to be slowed down or put in the pen or just hit a wall and stopped?

The White Sox, though, to make this worthwhile, have to get a trade befitting a top-of-the-rotation starter who can’t be a free agent until after the 2026 season. That means a huge return.

“That’s the plan right now [to make it through the season as a starter],” Crochet said. “We’re taking it start to start and this is heavily communication based [with the team] and between each start seeing how I feel.”

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