At this point in time, it's already fair to say that things didn't happen as New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen expected. During last year's offseason, right after an overachieving season compared to expectations, the team decided to give quarterback Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million extension, freeing up the franchise tag to keep running back Saquon Barkley around.
A year later, Jones had a major regression — unsurprising, too, even though the level of it was to a certain degree. And, to make things even more complicated, Barkley was allowed to leave in free agency and signed with the NFC East rivals Philadelphia Eagles .
"You're paying the guy $40 million. It's not to hand the ball off to a $12 million back," Schoen said internally, which was revealed on Hard Knocks. "This is the year for Daniel. The plan all along was to give him a couple years. Is he our guy for the next 10 years? Or do we need to pivot and go find someone else?"
Now, 2024 will be in fact a big year for Jones for multiple reasons. And the biggest one is because next offseason offers the first potential out for the Giants in the deal. If Joe Schoen wants, they can get rid of the quarterback right after the 2024 season.
There are different scenarios — and repercussions — for that to happen.
Regular release in 2025
Daniel Jones will earn $36 million in 2024, and $35.5 million of it (the base salary) are fully guaranteed, so there's no realistic scenario for him to get cut before the season. The idea was always to give him two years after the extension to see how it would go.
For 2025, though, it's a different conversation.
Jones is slated to make $30.5 million next year, with a deadline for the Giants to make a decision on the fifth day of the league year, in March, when $11 million of his salary get guaranteed.
If he gets released before that without a post-June 1st designation, New York will have to handle $22.21 million in dead money, but it goes down from his $41.605 million projected cap hit ($19.395 million in cap savings).
The Giants would immediately save that amount, without any future implications on the salary cap. This may be the most likely and prudent scenario at this point, clearing the decks as soon as possible while the team looks for a new quarterback.
Post-June 1st release in 2025
However, the Giants might decide to open as much cap space as possible in 2025, trying to maximize the early savings — which could make sense for Joe Schoen if he doesn't have strong job security after Jones' failed outcome.
In this case, Daniel Jones would be released in March, before the fifth day of the league year, but they would designate him as a post-June 1st release.
The bad: The Giants would have zero savings until June 1st, and there would be future dead money as well. The good: The savings in 2024, starting on June 2, would be much more significant.
This tool exists so teams can prorate the dead money after they release a player. The cap hit from this year still happens, but any remaining dead money doesn't accelerate until the following season.
In this case, the Giants would have $11.105 million in dead money in 2025, saving $30.5 million in cap space. However, they would still have $11.105 million in dead money for 2026.
If they want to keep him
As Schoen said, the Giants will still give Daniel Jones a year to prove himself. If he goes back to his 2022 production, there's a chance of him being around longer.
In that scenario, Jones is slated to make $30.5 million in 2025 and $47.5 million in 2026. But none of that is guaranteed at this point. So there could be a renegotiation. If Jones agree to reduce next year's salary from $30 million to $20 million, for example, his cap hit would go down to $31.605 million — which is still significant, but fair for a mid-level starting quarterback, especially considering that the top quarterbacks in the league are making north of $50 million per season.
The Giants did make a mistake on how they handled last year's offseason, but the team still has a lot of flexibility to change the course of the offense soon.
Related: Understanding the basics of NFL Free Agency
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