Fantasy basketball: Risers, fallers from NBA summer league

Vegas, baby!

After the first night of the 2024 NBA draft, we did some early projections on the fantasy basketball and betting futures outlook of the rookies.

Since then, there's been a second round of the NBA draft, an eventful free agency window and, currently, the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas where we get our first look at this year's draft class in a setting against other NBA players.

Every year, I find the Summer League to be an excellent opportunity to refine those initial expectations for which rookies might be ready to contribute fantasy -- and betting-caliber numbers to their NBA teams from season one. At the midpoint of this year's summer league, let's update our fantasy hoops projections for several of the top prospects.

Zaccharie Risacher , SF, Atlanta Hawks
Fantasy adjustment: Downgrade

Smooth.

That is the word that consistently comes up when discussing the game of the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NBA draft. Risacher's skill on offense is evident, and may even be better than advertised. He is a facile ball-handler and passer, and transitions into his shooting stroke effortlessly off either the pass or the dribble.

Risacher's shooting stroke looks good and he has easy 3-point range. His shot has been a bit off, with him making only four of his 16 3-point attempts, but it seems clear that he'll get plenty of opportunities to shoot from range and his mechanics suggest those shots will go in at a higher clip moving forward. And Risacher's length at 6-10 with long arms helps him get better looks on offense and should eventually serve him in good stead as a defender.

The downside of Risacher's early performance in Vegas is that he didn't display the... intent, let's say, that I'm used to seeing from rookie prospects that are ready to make Day 1 impact on the league. In both of his games so far, there were long stretches when Risacher was a non-factor. He was not particularly aggressive at either end of the court, seemingly content to be a release-valve on offense and an adequate on-ball and rotation defender at the other end.

This jives with Risacher having been more of a 3 and D role player in the Euroleague last season, and the pre-draft scouting report that Risacher needs to work on his shot creation to reach his potential. From what I've seen in Vegas, Risacher has abundant skill and plenty of upside. And if the Hawks lean into the rebuild from Day 1, Risacher could still end up starting out the gate. But, right now, it looks like he'll need a bit of time before he is ready to make a big statistical impact for fantasy hoops teams.

Updated fantasy spin: I'd have Risacher between 100th and 125th in my fantasy hoops rankings at the moment, making him either a last-round flyer or a free agent of interest in many fantasy hoops formats.

Alex Sarr , PF/C, Washington Wizards
Fantasy adjustment: Downgrade

In the classic movie Tombstone, there is a scene where Val Kilmer's Doc Holliday is holding a conversation with Wyatt Earp and his brothers while completely ignoring a character played by Billy Bob Thornton. At some point, Doc looks up and says, "Johnny, I apologize. I forgot you were there." Unfortunately, that scene came to my mind in the second game I watched Sarr this Summer League.

If I wasn't paying full attention, it was way too easy to forget he was playing at all.

Sarr absolutely looks the part of a future NBA superstar. He's 7-feet tall but moves with the coordination of a smaller player. Visually, he somewhat reminds me of a young LaMarcus Aldridge on the court.

Sarr appears to have a complete skill set on offense. He can handle the ball comfortably on the perimeter, using the dribble to set up a comfortable jump shot or even to attack the paint as long as it isn't clogged with smaller players that can strip him on the way in. Sarr is a good passer for a big man, showing some signs of legitimately strong court vision and the ability to create some looks for his teammates.

Sarr has not exhibited any sort of post moves or ability to create a shot in the paint, which is an obvious area where he needs to improve. When he has attempted to score, it has primarily been in getting that jump shot. His shot mechanics look good, even out to the 3-point line, but his shot rarely fell in his first three Summer League games. Sarr does have explosive athletic ability that should allow him to get some easy dunk attempts on offense when set up by teammates, and also helped him get some blocked shots on defense even in situations where he might not have been in the best position.

The issue with Sarr, similarly to countryman Risacher, seems to be more about intent and aggressiveness than skill set. Sarr has seemed entirely content to move the ball on offense without even attempting to initiate scoring. His lack of aggression in the paint was often almost baffling, particularly in a Summer League environment where top prospects are typically given a green light. The vast majority of his shots have been jumpers that were off the mark, making only 19.5% of his field goal attempts and 11.8% of his 5.7 3PA per game. Sarr did show some early signs of interest early in his third game, when he faced off against No. 7 pick Donovan Clingan , but the initial flurry was more on defense and ultimately didn't lead to much production at either end of the court.

I can see why the Wizards might be excited about Sarr's long term upside. He has the tools and skill to be great. But, based on what I've seen in Vegas, he has a lot of developing to do before he's ready to make an impact at the NBA level.

Updated fantasy spin: Out of the draft, I thought Sarr could have top-75 fantasy hoops upside as a rookie. But, based on what I've seen in Vegas, I'm not sure he's currently worth drafting in fantasy hoops leagues. If so, only as a last round upside flier. He'd probably sit around 150 in my offseason fantasy hoops rankings at the moment, more a potential free agent to watch than someone on my draft board.

Reed Sheppard , SG, Houston Rockets
Fantasy adjustment: Upgrade

Sheppard has been one of the most impressive rookies at the Summer League. In talking with my colleague Kevin Pelton, we half-joked that through the first two games Sheppard looked so good running the point we almost wondered if the Rockets would need to make a trade to open up starter minutes for him from Day 1.

While that last was just fun hypothetical discussion, the reality is that Sheppard has displayed a game that appears ready to contribute at the NBA level right now. Hailed as the best shooter in college basketball after making 52% of his 3-pointers last season, Sheppard's accuracy has in display in Vegas where he's averaged 20.0 PPG on 49.0 FG% and 38.5 3FG% through three games.

Far from just a spot-up jumpshooter, Sheppard has been playing primarily point guard for the Rockets and creating many of his own looks at all-three levels off the dribble. Sheppard's slick ball-handling and court vision, in conjunction with his decision-making and deadly jumper prompted one of my colleagues to say Sheppard reminded him a bit of a young Mark Price.

That last was both a big compliment and also an indication of how Sheppard's upside projection changed for me after watching him in Vegas. Instead of having to break in through the Rockets' deep core of swingmen, Sheppard could end up getting a lot of minutes at point guard as well. Fred VanVleet is the starter at the point, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Sheppard team with last season's No. 4 overall pick Amen Thompson as a strong backcourt duo off the bench that both get sixth man minutes.

Updated fantasy spin: Even if he projects to come off the bench, I'd still give Sheppard top-100 treatment in fantasy hoops drafts right now, looking to draft him in the late-middle portions of the draft. If for any reason he started getting starter minutes for the Rockets, I'd move him up to top-75 fantasy hoops consideration. Sheppard should challenge for rookie leader in threes and steals, and with enough minutes could do so in points and assists as well.

Stephon Castle , PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs
Fantasy adjustment: Steady

Castle only played one game in the Summer League before being shut down after a scary fall late in that game, but he still showed me enough to support my draft-night contention that he looks like an impact rookie out the gate. In Vegas, playing against old teammate Clingan's Trail Blazers, Castle was clearly the best player on the floor.

On offense, he was able to get where he wanted and create his own shot seemingly at will. His quickness and explosive first step let him penetrate the lane, and once there he could either get a good look or kick it out to a teammate for an open jumper. Castle appeared more lead/combo guard than point guard, which should allow him to play with the newly brought in Chris Paul at times, but I wouldn't be surprised if Castle got plenty of opportunities to run the point as well as he tries to develop into the Spurs' lead guard of the future.

Castle has the skill to produce numbers out of the gate. His jumper was streaky, as he missed a couple of 3-pointers badly but still made two of his six long distance attempts, but his athletic ability should help him to be able to finish in the paint from the get go. That athleticism is also part and parcel of his upside as a defender, with his late-game injury coming on him skying for a spectacular blocked shot attempt before getting undercut. Castle has the quickness and aggressiveness to be a rugged on-ball defender, but the length and explosiveness to generate steals and blocks as a help defender.

Updated fantasy spin: On draft night I thought Castle could rank in the 75 to 100 range on my offseason fantasy hoops rankings, and what I saw in Vegas supports that. I'd consider him in the eighth to 10th rounds of standard fantasy hoops drafts, with the risk/reward of a rookie whose playing role isn't guaranteed but the upside to be even better if he earns heavy starter minutes early next to last season's Rookie of the Year, Victor Wembanyama .

Ron Holland II , SF, Detroit Pistons
Fantasy adjustment: Steady

Holland had a rough first game in Vegas but was better in his second outing against the Bulls, and overall has been productive if inefficient through two games. Holland has struggled from the field, making only 12 of 35 shot attempts and one of his six 3-point shots, but in the second half of his game against the Bulls he seemed to settle down. He got a posterizing dunk in the third quarter, and after was able to set up and make mid-range jumpers off the dribble late.

While Holland's measurables and scouting report had some similarities to Ausar Thompson , who the Pistons took with the fifth pick last season, their games are actually very different. While Thompson is more of an aggressive rebounder/defender whose offensive game is more of an off-ball 3-point shooter/finisher at the rim, Holland has a more nuanced offensive game where he can create off the dribble and work all three levels as a scorer. Holland is also a strong defender and rebounder, as evidenced by his 16 total boards and four combined blocks and steals through two games.

The addition of free agent veteran wings Tobias Harris , Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr . eats into Holland's rookie upside, potentially cutting down his minutes and making it harder for him to break through. But Holland has an NBA body and a skill set that would seemingly let him contribute right away, and on a rebuilding Pistons team I wouldn't be surprised if Holland gets good minutes next to the team's other young building blocks of Cade Cunningham , Jaden Ivey , Thompson and Jalen Duren .

Updated fantasy spin: Holland still projects as a fantasy hoops prospect in the 100-125 range, with late-draft flier upside.

Donovan Clingan , C, Portland Trail Blazers
Fantasy adjustment: Upgrade

Clingan is one of those people whose size is hard to get a true perspective on until you see him in person. He is massive, making fellow 7-foot lottery pick Sarr look almost undersized when they faced off. Clingan has been as advertised as a defensive impediment in the paint, leading the summer league thus far in both blocked shots (4.3 BPG) and rebounds (12.3 RPG).

The way he plays, at his size, looks like it should transfer stylistically to the NBA.

The main question for Clingan's production is minutes, with the Trail Blazers still having Deandre Ayton as their starting center. Both Clingan and Ayton are pure centers, with no way they could play at the same time. But they have entirely different skill sets, with Clingan as a dominant defender but Ayton as a strong scorer, so if they both remain on the roster it's possible Clingan could still push for the junior split in a near-even time share.

Updated fantasy spin: While it still isn't clear exactly how many minutes Clingan will play, he clearly has the upside to lead all rookies in rebounds and blocks. As such, particularly in category leagues, Clingan could be worth a late-round flier in fantasy hoops draft.

Rob Dillingham , PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
Fantasy adjustment: Downgrade

Dillingham has really struggled with his shot in the Summer League, shooting only 27.8% from the field and 25.0% from downtown through his first three games. He has shown some positive signs, particularly early in his second game when he scored or assisted on all of the Timberwolves' first 17 points.

Dillingham has also been leaning noticeably into playing a more pure point guard role, as opposed to the instant-scorer off the bench that he played in college. Dillingham has shown some promise as a point, averaging 6.7 APG vs. 3.0 TO so far in Vegas, and on the court he has been pass-first in a way I didn't expect. This could bode well for Dillingham's long-term future with the Timberwolves, if he is able to develop into the successor to Mike Conley as the point guard of the future. But his production upside, this season, would likely be higher as an instant-offense sixth man than as a purely backup PG.

Updated fantasy spin: Based on what I've seen in Vegas, I'd downgrade Dillingham to a don't-draft-but-keep-an-eye on prospect in fantasy hoops leagues.

Matas Buzelis , SF, Chicago Bulls
Fantasy adjustment: Upgrade

Buzelis has been impressive in the Summer League and is in strong contention for the highest rookie fantasy hoops upside in this class. Buzelis is a unique player, with a body type and skill set that is a bit of a mashup between Andrei Kirilenko and Danilo Gallinari. The former has shown up on defense, where Buzelis has 10 combined steals and blocks through three games. He has played strong on-ball defense, and has also shown a willingness to get his hands on the ball as a help defender.

On offense, Buzelis has been aggressive off the dribble, both attacking the rim and in setting up his own jumpers. His shot has been off, so he's been inefficient while shooting only 38.2% from the field and 27.8% from behind the arc, but he has still been very productive with 20.3 PPG. In an NBA setting where he wouldn't have quite the same green light but would also be surrounded by better offensive players, I could see Buzelis averaging mid-teens as a scorer on solidly better percentages if he gets starter minutes this season.

That last is a question, as he's technically still listed as a backup forward for the Bulls, but that depth chart has the Bulls starting three guards including Zach LaVine ... who may not remain on the roster once the season starts. Regardless, Buzelis and Patrick Williams look to be the two best forwards on the team, and with the Bulls poised to rebuild after the exit of DeMar DeRozan , Buzelis looks like he should be a starter from day one.

Updated fantasy spin: If Buzelis does start for the Bulls, he has top-75 fantasy hoops upside. At present, I'd consider taking him in the middle rounds of fantasy basketball drafts.

Zach Edey , C, Memphis Grizzlies
Fantasy adjustment: Incomplete

Edey has not been able to play in the Las Vegas Summer League due to an ankle injury he suffered during a game against the Jazz on July 8. Edey was outstanding in that game, scoring 14 points on 7-of-12 shooting from the field while grabbing 15 boards and blocking four shots, most of which occurred after he suffered the ankle injury early in the game.

This suggests that Edey's absence from Vegas thus far may be more for precautions than due to the injury being serious. It's still worth keeping an eye on because Edey is such a huge person. He made even Clingan look small in their matchup during the NCAA tournament. NBA history is littered with outstanding big men whose careers were derailed or at least majorly impacted by nagging and/or chronic lower body injuries. With that said, the hope is that this injury is minor and Edey will return to full strength in the near future.

Dalton Knecht and Bronny James , Los Angeles Lakers
Fantasy adjustment: Players of interest

Knecht was the Lakers' first round pick in the 2024 draft and he has played well in his two summer league games in Vegas after playing three previous summer league games in California. Knecht has shown the ability to score in bunches, from all three levels, and that would seem to be a need on the Lakers' roster once the NBA regular season begins. In both games in Vegas, there were stretches when Knecht seemed content to be a cog in the offense and play a facilitator role for his teammates. Knecht has a solid handle and has shown flashes of passing skills off the dribble.

Knecht was also able to put a lot of points on the board in a hurry. He was aggressive in the paint and off the drive, setting up mid-range jumpers off the dribble. His bread and butter is his 3-point shot that opens up everything else. In those two games, Knecht averaged 22.0 PPG (41.0 FG%, 41.2 3P%), 8.0 RPG, 3.5 3PG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG and 1.0 BPG in 32.4 MPG. He had a memorable duel against Rockets rookie Reed Sheppard , both creating major offense for their teams and also often defending each other on defense. Knecht is mature at 23 years old, has the physical strength to compete right away, and a skillset the Lakers need. He has solid upside as a rookie and looks like an NBA rotation player from Day 1.

However, Bronny James, as of now, does not.

James is very early in the development process and looked like it in Vegas. He appeared to be pressing in a way that limited his effectiveness. He's rushed shots, particularly wide open 3-pointers and been ice-cold as a shooter. He's repeatedly had his passes deflected, leading to turnovers.

The sentiment among reporters in Vegas was that Bronny didn't appear to be playing with any type of basketball instincts, which runs counter to the scouting reports from his high school career. The overwhelming attention he has received might be rattling him a bit as well. Bronny James is an NBA player with a guaranteed contract, but he needs to develop quite a bit, likely with long stints in the G-League, before he enters any fantasy-relevant discussion.