On the Money: Picks from the diamond as the MLB gets back to business

Last week was as mixed a bag as you could get with these picks.

There was the good: Spain at plus money was a winner, taking care of business in the Euro championship.

The bad: Jasmine Paolini overcame a rough start in the women’s final at Wimbledon, looked primed to win the title and then let it slip away.

And then, the ugly: I watched Gunnar Henderson step up in Monday night’s Home Run Derby and promptly ruin my night.

Not only did Henderson not win the Derby, not only did he fail to advance in the field, but he finished in dead last. Just 11 homers for Henderson in the first round; by comparison, Phillies third baseman Alex Bohm led the first round with 21.

That’s gambling in a nutshell, I suppose: you win some, you lose some, and some make you question every decision you’ve ever made.

Two things I’m not questioning this week: my picks for Friday night’s MLB slate, baseball back in action as the All-Star Break concludes.

No bad, no ugly this week. I’m thinking good and good here.

Cubs ML +105

vs. Diamondbacks

Friday, 2:20 p.m.

It’s a little tricky trying to size up these MLB matchups the first day back from the All-Star break. This game here is a good example: as of Thursday afternoon, only Chicago’s Justin Steele is listed as a probable starting pitcher; the Diamondbacks have no one listed. Zac Gallen threw their last game on Sunday but also pitched an inning in the All-Star Game on Tuesday, so it’s more likely that someone else in the rotation will get the ball.

But it seems pretty solid that Steele is locked in for the Cubs, and that’s frankly good enough for me to take a swing on the home underdog Cubbies here.

The Cubs have slipped to the bottom of the NL Central as of late, though their only four games under. 500 and only 8.5 games back of the division-leading Brewers (the Central is the most competitive division top-to-bottom by far in the league).

But one guy who hasn’t slipped a bit? Justin Steele.

He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two months, and Steele’s numbers continue to improve: he’s had seven straight quality starts, six innings and fewer than three runs earned. His last time out, he tossed seven scoreless innings against the Orioles, one of the best lineups in baseball.

Perhaps more importantly: the Cubs have won four of their last five games with Steele getting the start.

The Diamondbacks are starting to click after a slow start, and they’re a fun team that I don’t like fading. But this strikes me as a golden opportunity.

Cubs at Wrigley, with one of the best in the game on the mound? Sign me up.

Royals -1.5 (+110)

vs. White Sox

Friday, 8:10 p.m.

We’re not going to reinvent the wheel here: the White Sox still are, and appear likely to remain, the worst team in baseball.

This is one of the few Friday matchups that, as I begin to write, has a pitching matchup set (or at the least, two probable starters listed).

Chris Flexen looks primed to pitch for the White Sox, against Kansas City’s Michael Wacha.

Flexen’s the definition of a journeyman — in just seven years pro, he’s spent time with four different MLB organizations with a one-year Korean Baseball Organization stint mixed in.

He hasn’t been terrible for the White Sox — 18 starts, a 4.82 ERA, three straight quality starts heading into Friday — but has been victimized by a lack of run support pretty much every time out.

Flexen’s record this year is 2-8 and, incredibly, the White Sox are 2-16 in his 18 starts. 13 of those losses were by more than one run; he won’t get shelled, but he’s also not shutting teams down, either.

Wacha missed about a month with a foot fracture, but since returning from the IL he’s been pretty sharp. In three of his four starts back from injury, he only allowed one earned run.

The Royals have hung around, and even though they’ve slipped a bit in the AL Central, they’re firmly in the Wild Card hunt and still playing good baseball — primarily because rotation guys like Wacha have all been much, much better than expected.

The White Sox are a sinking ship, the Royals are trying to steer their way into the postseason. These are the games they can’t afford to mess around with, even though it’s only July, so I like Kansas City here.