AFC East Breakdown: Which Team Will Win The Division?

The AFC East has three playoff-caliber teams.

The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets can make the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are not at the level of the other three teams in the division.

Last season, the Bills won the AFC East but lost in the divisional round to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Miami finished second in the AFC East with an 11-6 record.

They made it to the playoffs but lost in the wild-card round to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Jets were 7-10 and did not make the playoffs last year.

A season-ending injury to Aaron Rodgers just four plays into the season derailed their year.

New England finished last in the division last season with a 4-13 record.

Below, we will break down each team in the AFC East and predict which team will win the division.

AFC East Breakdown

The AFC East will be a three-team race this year.

Divisional matchups in the AFC East will be very competitive.

Scroll down for a breakdown of each AFC East team heading into the 2024 NFL season.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo won the AFC East last year but they will look a bit differently on offense.

Stefon Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans and Gabe Davis is no longer with the team, leaving a big hole at WR.

Buffalo drafted WR Keon Coleman in early round two but it will take time for him to become a trusted weapon for Josh Allen.

The Bills ranked in the top six in both points per game and points allowed per game last season.

Josh Allen is one of the best QBs in the NFL and he will always have Buffalo in games.

Dalton Kincaid became a trusted weapon in the second half of the season last year.

Allen will rely upon Kincaid often this year and it is possible the tight end leads the team in targets this year.

Buffalo’s defense has ranked inside the top five in points allowed per game in each of the last three seasons.

This year should be no different and they will remain a very good defensive unit.

Led by Allen, the Bills will remain a formidable team and be tough to beat out for first in the AFC East.

Miami Dolphins

Miami is led by a dynamic offense.

Tua Tagovailoa when healthy, is one of the top QBs in the league.

Miami ranked third in points per game last year.

Tua led the league in passing yards and had a 69.3 completion percentage.

Tyreek Hill remains an elite wideout, ranking first in receiving yards and second in receptions last season.

In 14 games last year, Jaylen Waddle had 72 catches, 1,014 receiving yards, and four receiving TDs.

They made some moves to help their defense which ranked 22nd in points allowed per game last year.

Miami signed Safety Jordan Poyer, CB Kendall Fuller, and LB Shaquil Barrett.

Unfortunately for Miami, Barrett recently announced his retirement.

They also acquired defensive tackle Calais Campbell and Odell Beckham Jr.

Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL in week 17 last year, so it is possible he may not be ready when the season begins.

Miami’s defense could be a problem for the first few weeks of the season.

However, as long as Tua, Hill, and Waddle are healthy, they can outscore any team in the league.

If Tua and Hill can remain healthy, Miami will remain a very good team and compete in the AFC East.

New York Jets

No team in the AFC East or in the league had more hype in the offseason last year than the New York Jets.

This was because they acquired future HOF QB Aaron Rodgers.

The hype lasted for four plays before Rodgers went down with a season-ending Achilles injury.

This offseason is different with not nearly as much hype for the Jets.

It might be a good thing for the Jets to have the pressure not nearly as high as last year.

The Jets finished last year with a 7-10 record with arguably the worst QB play in the league.

New York has a very good defense and they have weapons on offense.

RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson are excellent weapons for Rodgers.

If the Jets had average QB play last year, they would have likely made the postseason and possibly contended to win the AFC East.

Rodgers may not be what he was in his prime but if he is 70% of his prime version, the Jets will be a scary team.

New York is going to be significantly improved with Rodgers and their defense will remain elite.

The Jets could be a very dangerous team this year.

New England Patriots

New England is the worst team in the AFC East on paper and in reality.

Their offense can not come close to the Bills with Allen, the Dolphins with Tua, or the Jets with Rodgers.

Either Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye will be under center in week 1.

Maye and Brissett are by far the worst QBs in a division that features very talented QBs.

They have no weapons at WR.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have Hill and Waddle and the Jets have Garrett Wilson.

Now, with Bill Belichick gone, the Patriots’ defense can not be relied upon as usual.

They ranked 14th in points allowed per game last year and expect them to be in the bottom half in this category this year without Belichick.

New England is not in a position to compete with the other three teams in the AFC East.

Which Team Will Win The AFC East?

The Patriots can safely be eliminated from contention to win the AFC East.

The AFC East is a three-team race between the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets.

Buffalo has the best QB, Miami has the most dynamic offense, and the Jets have the best all-around team in the division.

While Miami has an excellent offense, their defense is not nearly as good as Buffalo or New York’s.

Tua is also very injury-prone.

This leaves it between the Jets and the Bills.

A lot of New York’s season depends on how Rodgers plays after a significant injury.

If Rodgers can play 70% of his prime self, New York is a scary team.

Buffalo lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, leaving them thin at WR.

Both the Bills and Jets have excellent defenses.

With better playmakers on offense in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, the New York Jets, led by future hall-of-fame QB Aaron Rodgers will win the AFC East.