Increased powerful monsoon thunderstorms to impact Arizona on Sunday and Monday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, Sunday and Monday, 21-22 Jul 2024, are shaping up for more strong monsoon thunderstorms coming off of the Mogollon Rim into the lower elevations and Counties. Be prepared for more severe weather, such as strong gusty winds, dust, hail, and localized flooding.

Model thunderstorm data for Sunday 21 Jul 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

The upper-level 300 mb flow is the ridging, positioned over western Arizona and with strong speed divergence over the Mogollon Rim. The 500 mb steering flow will move the storms off of the Rim into the lower elevations in the afternoon and early evening hours. This setup looks to be in place through Monday.

For Sunday, expect the thunderstorms to kick off after 11 a.m., develop, and move off the Rim. In Cochise and Santa Cruz County, they will ignite after 1 p.m. The skew-t indices indicate more unstable conditions with CAPEs 1,800 – 2,900, LI in the -6 to -8 range, little to no capping, and DCAPE 1,100 to 1,500, and positive hail up to 1.75”. Therefore, expecting the likelihood of more severe conditions like >60 mph gusts, possible hail >1”, and localized flooding. Additionally, in dust-prone areas, it may get blowing dust. Strong storms will likely impact Yavapai, Gila, Coconino, Southern Navajo, Graham, Greenlee, Pinal, Maricopa, Cochise, Pima, La Paz, and Santa Cruz Counties. The coverage is looking to be fairly widespread. Phoenix has the possibility of at least vicinity storms but may not see a lot of rain overhead on this day. Tucson, on the other hand, has a better chance of thunderstorms and rain to move through in the late afternoon into the evening hours.

For Monday, expect thunderstorms to start after 12 p.m. on the Mogollon Rim and push off with the steering flow into the low elevations, in a similar pattern to the day before. The unstable atmosphere will continue into the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. However, the thunderstorms will move slightly westward, and I anticipate that Mohave County will also be looking for late afternoon and evening storms. Overall, the monsoon thunderstorms are impacting a fairly broad area of the state. Therefore, please stay advised of your local radar data, NWS warnings, and don’t drive through flooded roadways. Stay safe!

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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