In the last few weeks, a great deal of discussion has occurred over voter registration in Leon County and the role of local parties. Amid data that shows Democratic registration in Leon County is down, several commentators have laid the blame at the local Democratic Party. As someone who focuses heavily on data analysis for campaigns and political committees, I wanted to offer up two clarifiers on the registration numbers.
First, let’s address the registration changes in the county. I believe some selective data reading is being focused on here. First thing’s first, registration in Leon County is incredibly volatile. Thanks to a constant influx of college students; both to Florida A&M University, Florida State University, and Tallahassee State College, our county is repeatedly cycling through tens of thousands of voters. As such, our active voter list routinely goes up and down, often increasing right before an election thanks to registration drives on the campuses. We have gone from 170,000 active voters, down to 143,000, up to 217,000, and currently sit at around 190,000.
Amid these fluctuations, the party share of the vote has moved in one clear direction. Since 2004, the Democratic share of the voter roll in Leon has gone from 57% to 49.9%. This drop, however, has not been due to Republican gains; which consistently sit at around 26% to 29% of the roll; and is currently 28%. Instead, the growth has been among independent voters, which have gone from 16% to 22% over the last 20 years.
In Leon County, these independent voters, which include many students and are hence younger and more racially diverse than the county, lean much more to the left. In addition, some of this Democratic drop has been due to conservative rural Democrats on the outskirts of the county, a group already voting steadily Republican for decades, formally switching their registration.
As a result, while the registration advantage for Democrats has dropped, the share of the vote Democratic candidates get has risen. In 2020, Joe Biden got 63.5% of the vote in Leon, the highest any modern Presidential Democratic candidate has received. This was despite the Democratic registration advantage already being down from 2004. The electorate in Leon County, regardless of registered as a D or NPA, remains very liberal.
Now, while I believe it’s safe to say Leon remains a firm Democratic County, registration drives are important. As I stated, the registration totals often swing wildly here due to the incoming and outgoing students. Those students are going to be a major source of Democratic registration drives in the fall. Those questioning why the Leon DEC isn’t doing more are clearly not paying attention to the registration plans set out for the fall; a time when all students are back and settled in their apartments and dorms.
In the meantime, the local party is focused on ensuring Democratic candidates win the local August contests and has been active is signaling out Republican-aligned candidates; something a local Democratic party would be expected to do.
I would hope that as we move into the fall, the same critics who complain about the registration drop, and complain about the Leon DEC being too involved in our local government divide, will join efforts to increase registration before the election. The local party is, in fact, big enough for all Democrats.
Matthew Isbell is a data analyst for Democratic campaigns and runs the MCIMAPS website where he discusses elections from across the world.
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