Stronger monsoon thunderstorms to impact Western Arizona on Tuesday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, Tuesday, 23 Jul 2024, is looking like more significant monsoon thunderstorms to impact Western Arizona and more isolated in other areas of the state during the afternoon to evening hours today.

Model data indicating thunderstorm activity Tuesday 23 Jul 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

A similar pattern of thunderstorms initiating up on the Mogollon Rim after 12 p.m., moving off of the Rim after 3 p.m., and heading to the lower elevations into the early evening hours will enhance these particular storms. Good upper-level diffluence coupled with moderate to higher instabilities will enhance these storms. The steering flow will push them towards the southwest through the day. The skew-t indices indicate CAPEs of 1,500 to 2,500, LIs of -5 to -7, no significant capping, and DCAPE values around 1,800. A few hail indicators as well. The precipitable moisture is over an inch. Therefore, expect winds > 60 mph, hail up to one inch, localized flooding, and blowing dust in prone areas.

The main thrust of the convective activity will impact Coconino, Yavapai, and Western Gila in the early afternoon and then push into Maricopa, Mohave, La Paz, and even Western Pinal through the early evening hours. Additionally, Western Pima and southern Arizona will have more isolated thunderstorms, and severe weather is less likely but still possible. Phoenix may get some rain, wind, and dust for the northern and western parts of the metro today. Tucson is looking to be spared from a major storm hit today other than some isolated showers in the vicinity.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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