Intense thunderstorms to bring strong winds, hail, and flooding to Arizona today

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Thursday, 25 July 2024, there will be a similar pattern to yesterday's monsoon thunderstorm track. Storms will initially develop on the Mogollon Rim after 12 p.m. and move southward over the afternoon and evening hours. There is a high likelihood of severe thunderstorms today in some of this convective activity.

The red area is general thunderstorms and the blue area higher intensity storms Thursday 25 Jul 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

The upper-level difluence and unstable atmosphere in Arizona will lead to significant thunderstorms impacting Southern Arizona today. The stability indices are on the higher side, with CAPE values 2,200 to 3,000, LIs around -7 to -8, no capping, DCAPE values over 1200, and hail indicators. Due to this, expect storms to potentially have winds >60 mph, potential blowing dust, hail less than one inch, and localized flooding. The hardest hit areas will be Gila, Graham, Pinal, Pima, Western Cochise, and Santa Cruz. The storms will move off the rim around 3 pm, impacting the lower valley areas between 4-10 pm today. Pima County, including Tucson, is generally looking for the most severe activity. In the evening hours, the western Phoenix metro is also looking to be impacted by storms coming off the Rim.

The steering flow will generally move the storms southwesterly through the afternoon and evening. The worst of the severe weather is likely after 4 p.m. and will continue into the evening. So, please keep in mind the local radar data, NWS warnings, and local flooding conditions while traveling. Some of these storms have the potential to get 1-2 inches of rain in less than an hour. However, the biggest threat today will be strong gusty winds between 50-70 mph.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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