Election observers: Kari Lake primary victory would play into Democrats' hands

(The Center Square) – Arizonans will select nominees to replace outgoing U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in Tuesday's primary elections.

Democrats have rallied behind Ruben Gallego, the U.S. representative of Arizona’s third congressional district.

The Republican Senate primary will come down to Kari Lake and Mark Lamb.

When she lost her race for governor in 2022, Lake claimed it was stolen without providing evidence, similar to former President Donald Trump's and Lake's claims about the 2020 presidential election. As a result, Lake faces a defamation lawsuit from an Arizona election official for her unproven claims about the 2022 gubernatorial race, which she has decided against defending herself in court. The issue likely would follow Lake into November is she wins the Republican nomination.

In contrast, Mark Lamb is an Arizona sheriff who has testified before Congress, saying he’s seen “zero evidence that would show” him that fraud swayed the 2020 presidential election. During his 2024 Senate primary, Lamb highlighted his search for election fraud evidence and reiterated that he had found none.

“Mark Lamb has said very clearly that he has seen no actual evidence of widespread fraud in our Arizona elections,” Arizona Republican strategist Barrett Marson said. “And he is law enforcement, and he has said many times, ‘if you have evidence, bring it to me and I will investigate.’”

Lake is favored to clinch the nomination on Tuesday. She’s been endorsed by Trump and aligns most closely with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party. That doesn’t mean that Lamb has no chance, political observers note.

“I think we’ll see a similar number of votes for Lamb that we’ve seen in the protest votes during the presidential preference election for Nikki Haley,” senior vice president of research and strategy at HighGround Public Affairs Paul Bentz told The Center Square. “So it’ll be maybe a little bit closer than people think, but all predictions are that Kari Lake will win on Tuesday.”

If Lake wins, her election denial lawsuits could plague her throughout the general election campaign. Gallego’s campaign has already highlighted her fraud claims about the 2020 presidential election and 2022 gubernatorial election. Lake’s continued election denials are baggage for her in the general election, Bentz said.

“With the exception of Trump, the MAGA candidates, those who have chosen to deny the election, those who have chosen to align themselves with the criminalization of abortion, those who want to ban early voting in the state, have struggled and will continue to struggle against Democrats who are able to appeal to the broader Independent and unaffiliated portion of the state,” Bentz said.

Gallego has moderated his stances on immigration. He supports increased funding for border patrol. He also supported the bipartisan border bill that died in the Senate.

“A Kari Lake victory is certainly what the Rubin Gallego camp is rooting for,” Marson said.

Election denial is a hindrance in the general election, observers note. Candidates who claimed the 2020 election was stolen fared poorly in the 2022 midterms. Going into 2024, Trump is concerned that Lake’s continued election denial will hurt his poll numbers in Arizona as well as her own.

“She doesn’t have the same popularity as Trump does and as Trump has cooled on her – I think he has endorsed her and she was able to speak at the convention – but compared to when she was considered one of the darling candidates of 2022, the shine definitely worn off a little bit in her race,” Bentz said. “She’s got a significant uphill battle against Gallego.”

Neither the Lake or Lamb campaigns responded to requests for comments.