KGET

Showdown in the Central Valley: The Battle for the 22nd Congressional District

By Jenny Huh,

6 hours ago

BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) — In this half-hour political special, you’ll hear from the 22nd Congressional District’s political experts and masterminds, the candidates, and give you the local insight, analysis and background you need to make an informed vote in November.

17 News political reporter Jenny Huh and KSEE reporter Katherine Phillips from Fresno tell you all about the contentious race between Republican incumbent David Valadao and Democratic challenger Rudy Salas , and why the battle is all too familiar for the Central Valley.

Read below for more on “Showdown in the Central Valley: The Battle for the 22nd Congressional District.”

Introduction

While the dynamics and strategies of winning an election vary, one thing remains clear: The question of “which party has the majority in the United States House of Representatives?” has long relied on the Central Valley. It’ll be no different in the 2024 presidential election cycle, with California’s 22nd Congressional District playing a critical role.

In choosing the next Congressmember, even a single voter in Kern, Tulare or Kings counties can make all the difference.

California’s 22nd Congressional District helped determine the U.S. House majority in 2022 and will do so again in 2024.

With the House Republican majority slimmer than ever with expulsions, resignations and retirements of lawmakers, all eyes — and a lot of money — are on CD-22.

As Kern Democratic political analyst Neel Sannappa pointed out, “It’s a truly purple district. How much can really change just based off this one district, that could be the difference between who has the majority in the House.”

On the effect of the presidential race on down-ballot races like CD-22, Sannappa noted, “Trump can maybe bring out more Republicans to vote, and they would likely vote for Valadao. But at the same time, Trump being on the ballot could bring out a lot of Democrats.”

But CD-22 poses an interesting yet complex dynamic that makes election results difficult to predict.

Despite being a majority Democrat and majority Latino district, an Anglo-Republican Congressman, David Valadao, has been re-elected multiple times since 2013.

He lost the incumbency once to a Democrat in 2018.

“The congressman has done a great job of representing the unincorporated areas, the cities, the counties all within his district. It’s a vote of confidence, I think that he’s been returned time and time again, no matter what the [voter] registration is,” said Tulare County GOP Chair and former U.S. Congresswoman Connie Conway.

“Both sides clearly think they can win it,” added University of California, Merced Professor Nathan Monroe.

Geography and Redistricting

California’s 22nd Congressional District has about 308,000 registered voters.

About 42% are registered Democrats, 27% are Republican and 23% are no party preference.

Kern voters make up more than 60% of the district. Tulare makes up more than 20%, and Kings represents only about 10%.

Yet, former California Assemblywoman and independent political analyst Nicole Parra says, the power of Kings is not to be ignored.

“You see this year after year, [because you want] the Republican and moderate Democrats in Kings County, you want to be able to get a certain percentage in Kings County,” she said. “And if you’re within a decent percentage, you have a shot. But Kings County voters and also Tulare, but mostly Kings because it’s all of Kings County, that’s a strong voting block.”

A Hanford native, incumbent Valadao carries that Kings County advantage.

CD-22 was CD-21, until California’s 2021 redistricting.

According to the Cook Political Report, the new 22nd district is one of the most Democratic-leaning congressional districts to be represented by a Republican, nationwide.

A 14-member independent state panel — The California Citizens Redistricting Commission — created by California voters in 2008, drew new lines for congressional districts, based on factors like population and demographics.

These new maps took effect for the June 2022 primary.

Overall, California lost one House seat due to slow population growth and now has 52 representatives — still more than any other state.

Experts said the redistricting benefited Democrats statewide, particularly in majority-Latino districts, including in the Central Valley.

As the district became more Democratic and Latino, reelection bids for Valadao grew more competitive, especially with candidates like Rudy Salas, a former California Assemblymember.

In the 2022 midterm primary election, Salas beat Valadao by about 20 percentage points. But in the general, results turned, with Valadao beating Salas and retaining his seat by just three points.

And this year in the March presidential primary, Valadao defeated Salas by just about one percentage point.

“The challenge is, is ensuring that there is the kind of turnout that matches and reflects what the registration is in the district,” said California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks.

Chairwoman of the California Republican Party, Jessica Millan Patterson, also weighed in: “Generally speaking, this is a seat that would be very, very tough for Republicans. But what we have on our side is the phenomenal candidate that candidate David Valadao is.”

Demographics

CD-22 encompasses most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern, including the eastern portions of Bakersfield, southern portions of Hanford and all of Porterville, Shafter, Wasco, Delano, McFarland, Arvin and Lamont.

“This has traditionally been on the poor side, on the economic side, with traditionally more unemployment, low wages in some aspects of the district,” said Conway. “Yet, this district has the same problems that everybody has … inflation and costs to shop and to live.”

Although only about 308,000 people are registered to vote in CD-22, there are 775,000 residents in the district.

More than 70% of residents are Hispanic or Latino. Of them, 92% are of Mexican descent.

Those 25-44 are the district’s biggest population age block.

The median household income is about $55,000.

About 68% of residents are high school graduates or have higher education, and about 10% have a bachelor’s degree or higher.

CD-22’s biggest occupation blocks are natural resources, construction and maintenance occupations.

Major industries include education services and health care, and social assistance, as well as agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting and mining.

“You look at the situation of what people do in the Central Valley. They produce something,” said Kern Republican political analyst Cathy Abernathy. “And what they produce requires good transportation, requires fuel, requires water. All the things that most Democrats in Sacramento and Washington have no interest in.”

And Monroe added that while the rural, agriculture heavy areas tend to lean Republican, suburban areas with low-income and ethnically diverse voters, as well as urban areas, tend to be Democratic.

People

So, who are the candidates, the people fighting for your vote, come November?

“[CD-22] is a race that is a classic Valley matchup between a fairly moderate Democrat and a fairly moderate Republican incumbent that are sort of uniquely Valley legislators,” explained UC Merced Professor Nathan Monroe. “They understand some of the unique issues that are in the Valley. They play well to the constituents.”

Republican incumbent David Valadao is a first-generation American from Hanford.

He is the son of Portuguese immigrants and says he’s lived his entire life on a dairy farm.

A long-time Kevin McCarthy ally, the 46-year-old is fluent in both Spanish and Portuguese, a huge plus in the district.

The five-time congressman served one term in the California State Assembly prior to taking on Capitol Hill.

His biggest challenge? Being a moderate enough Republican in his unique district.

On that, the Congressman said, “I try to have a common sense position … Even people who are here working in the fields undocumented are being treated poorly by a lot of the crime and drugs that are coming across the border, and so there is a reasonable position there that most people will agree with, and we try to focus on those types of solutions.”

Political strategist Tal Eslick noted, “David Valadao is, as far as folks that I’m familiar with, the only candidate as a Republican who could hold this seat as a candidate. He’s part of this community. You see him at the grocery store, his kids go to school here. Unique in that sense that he’s a sincere, thoughtful representative of this area.”

Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021 and is one of only two to keep his House seat despite it.

That continues to be the elephant in the room — whether Valadao would face retaliation from Trump, especially in 2024, as the two are on the same ballot once again.

But it’s likely Trump won’t, or perhaps can’t, challenge Valadao, since CD-22 is vital to the House majority.

Though Trump, in a June visit to Capitol Hill allegedly bragged that most of the 10 House Republicans who had voted to impeach him were no longer in Congress and said quote “I never loved him” about Valadao.

“My relationship with him is fine, and we’re going to move forward. We’re going to focus on campaigning,” Valadao said in response.

Monroe also pointed out, “It’s the first presidential race in this [newly drawn] district … does Trump turn out the right composition of voters in this race?”

“[Valadao] has never lost when Donald Trump’s on the ballot,” said Abernathy. “Why? Because Trump pulls in more voters that normally don’t vote.”

On the other hand, Sannappa said, “There are folks that are willing to vote for Valadao regardless of whether or not they like Trump or not. I think Rudy Salas is going to have to really juxtapose his positions against Valadao and show that he’s someone who is going to stand up for working class folks and for women.”

“He is the Central Valley. The Democrats have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at this seat,” said CAGOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson.

Rudy Salas — a first-generation American and son of Mexican immigrants — is the two-time Democratic challenger to Valadao.

Salas, a 46-year-old Bakersfield native, was the first Latino member elected to the Bakersfield City Council in 2010.

He was also a former California State Assemblymember.

If elected to Congress, Salas would be the first Latino representative of the new CD-22.

“I tell people one of the biggest compliments I get is no matter which small community I go to, people are like ‘Oh Rudy, you’re one of us, we see you all the time,'” Salas said. “You’re either at a backpack drive, collecting school supplies, doing taxes for people. I’m constantly in the community, and that’s one of the things I truly appreciate.”

“The old saying goes that we don’t agonize, we organize, and we’ve been active on the ground, on the doors, on the streets, sending text messages and making phone calls and activating voters on the ground to be engaged in this important election,” explained CADEM Chair Rusty Hicks.

The 2024 faceoff between the two is already shaping up to be a deja vu of the 2022 midterm election. Valadao won and kept his incumbency by a slim margin.

“The reality is that [Valadao’s] base in 2022 showed up, as did Republicans across the Valley, [and across the country], whereas the Democrats that are outpacing Republicans in registration didn’t outpace them in terms of turnout,” said Monroe. “So, what you had then was a very close race, right, because you needed fewer of the proportion of the Democrats to show up to make it competitive.”

Both candidates expressed hope for his election cycle’s campaigning efforts.

“The community has been fantastic. People have been great. We just need them to turn out in November,” Salas noted.

“Obviously I have to get a lot of people who are not registered in my party to vote for me to be successful,” Rep. Valadao said.

GOP leader Jessica Millan Patterson said, “I think that Rudy Salas is what makes it competitive for us. He is such a flawed candidate. This is a person that we’ve already beat once.”

Democrats offered their own attacks.

“I think David Valadao has proven himself to be a talented politician, to be able to walk that line to where he can say that he’s a Republican and conservative,” Sannappa said. “He’s going to try to show himself as not a MAGA Trump threatening minorities candidate.”

In the 2024 primary election, Salas won Kern County. Valadao won Kings and Tulare. Districtwide, Valadao beat Salas by a slim one point.

Fundraising

While voters ultimately make the decision, a big part of any race comes down to the money — local, state and national dollars.

The Valadao campaign itself has raised over $3 million as of mid-July. Part of those funds came from Kevin McCarthy himself — at least $10,000.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, or NRCC, is also right behind Valadao. That’s the campaign arm of the House GOP.

So far, they’ve reserved nearly $46 million in TV and digital ads for battleground House races nationwide, including $1.3 million for the Bakersfield and $1.6 million for the Fresno areas.

On the other side of the aisle, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or the DCCC, is firmly backing Salas. That’s the campaign arm of the House Democrats.

The DCCC hasn’t yet released ad reservations ahead of November but spent at least $500,000 for the primary.

The Salas camp itself has raised over $3 million as of mid-July.

Some high-profile backers of Salas include former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Governor Gavin Newsom and the California Democratic Party.

High spending by outside groups is nothing new for this race. CD-22 was one of the most expensive House races in 2022 as well.

“The money that’s here is not from local wealth,” Monroe said of campaign contributions. “[The money is] to try to bring every dollar to bear from around the country to buy as much candidate awareness, and to bring as many people to the polls as possible. And it is going to cost millions of dollars for each for this race to start.”

Eslick added, “However, in any campaign, you use the same kind of blunt instruments of mail, digital ads, television, negative campaigning or contrast between the two candidates to drive voters out of fear or concern to support a respective candidate.”

As for key issues, Rudy Salas said, “My issues are the issues that voters are bringing up. It’s cost, healthcare and it’s choice.”

Valadao stated, “The first and foremost is water. Water is the thing that we struggle with the most here in the Central Valley … It’s crime, it’s homelessness, it’s drugs. It’s all those different things.”